TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST100 closed Friday 0.87% higher at 3934, and turnover of TRY 71.5bn, led by the gains at the REITSs and Energy stocks, whereas the Banks decoupled negatively from their peers, amid profit-takings. For the week, the BIST extended its gains by a further 8.48%, with the Banks rising 13.81%, followed by the Conglomerates’ 10.29%, REITS’ 10%, Transportation 9.44%, Industrials by a mere 6.49%, and Energy stocks by 5.55%.
• SASA, TUPRS and EKGYO led the gains among the BIST30 on Friday, whereas TTKOM, YKBNK, and ASELS were the most sold.
• On a weekly basis, the most bought and sold BIST30 stocks were: SMARTG; GESAN; and ISGYO, whereas the most sold were: PETKM; ODAS; and AGHOL. (Please recall that we had been warning our readers against PETKM due to the peak ethylene-naphtha spread prices).
• Today, we expect a positive opening at the BIST100.
• The TRY is trading flat at 18.59, and the DXY is also calm this morning at 112 level. The 5yr CDS rates will open the new week from the 738 level, after rising by just a half-pt. on Friday, and compared to last week’s opening of 768.
• On the commodity front, Brent has fallen below the USD 91 level to USD 90.78, and both ounce and gram GOLD prices have risen to USD 1655 and TRY 989, respectively.
• Please note that on Friday, we released our SUWEN TEKSTIL (SUWEN.TI) REPORT with a 1year-forward target price of TRY 61.41/share. 2023E EV/EBITDA for Suwen is 7.22x, which is at a premium of 7% relative to global market peers’ median (6.74x), despite Suwen’ significantly higher growth. Even though the company’s DCF offers upside, we initiate coverage with a HOLD rating due to stretched multiples relative to peers.
3Q22 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
• ARCLK: NI: TRY 336mn vs Median Est. TRY 406mn, vs TRY 651mn y/y. EBITDA: TRY 2.291 vs Est: TRY 2.907bn. For 2022: Sees EBITDA Margin @9.5% vs prev. 10%; CAPEX: €260mn vs prev. €220mn; Maintain Revs above 90%.
NEWS FLOW:
• Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the strong US labour market gives the central bank room to raise interest rates so it can curb inflation that’s running near a four-decade high. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly added that the recent central bank forecasts showing rates rising next year to as high as 5% and then pausing were still “a fairly good indication of where things are looking.” “What you see is growth below trend in 2023, GDP growth below trend, policy tightening that gets the rate up next year to between 4.5% and 5%. Finally, “Fed Bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, stated that the Fed is committed to returning inflation to its 2% average goal,” “To do so I expect we will need to raise rates further and then to hold that stance for a while.”
• Banking: The BRSA has tightened the ban on commercial lira loans by lowering the FX asset holdings threshold to 10m liras (~$538k) from 15m liras. As such, a company will not be able to get new local-currency loans if it holds more than 10 million liras in foreign-exchange cash assets and they exceed 5% of total assets or annual sales; former limits were 15m liras and 10%.
• Housing: According to the daily Sabah, President Erdogan will formally commence the Building of the Social Home Projects in Ankara. This may create a psychological interest in the REIT stocks-such as EKGYO.
• GESAN: Disclosed that it has obtained a€3.7mn solar-power contract in Slovenia.
• KFEIN: Disclosed that it has ended its share buyback program.
AGENDA:
• On the local front this week, Oct. Real Sector Confidence, Capacity Utilization Rate (Prev. 77.4%), Trade Balance (Est. TRY -10.4bn, Foreign Tourist Arrivals, Weekly Foreigners’ Net Stock/Bond Investment Change and Bloomberg Turkey Economic Survey will be released, as well as last week’s MPC Meeting Summary notes, whereas on the international front, the US PMI, Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Wholesale Inventories, New Home Sales, GDP, Core PCE, Jobless Claims, PCE Deflator, and U. of Michigan Expectations will be released, whereas the most important news flow from the Eurozone will be Thursday’s ECB Meeting, as well as the PMI, and the BOJ will also be disclosing its policy rate this week.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.