TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

" The BIST saw a drawback of 1.35% yesterday, amid further selective loan restrictions, especially in the auto sector, closing the day at 6605, with a hefty turnover of TRY 141.9bn. The global markets were on a buying mood, especially Mining stocks, after China's calls for broader measures to bolster its economy besides just the support for the property sector. This morning global markets are flat to slightly down ahead of this week's critical Central Bank meetings, kicking off tonight with the FOMC, and continued with the ECB and the BOJ, and as such, we expect a flat opening.
" The Banks diverged positively from their peers, rising by average 2.13%, but were not able to counter the hefty sales in the heavy-weight Auto stocks, as well as the profit-taking in the Energy stocks, falling by an average of nearly 6%, after the increased investor sentiment in the wake of the recent tax hike in natural gas prices, which will likely divert consumers' energy needs to solar-power, coupled with the Energy Minister's recent comments of increasing the share of renewable energy's share in total energy consumption by 10% to 65%.
" Thus, looking at our BIST30 Movers and Shakers list, GARAN, YKBNK and GUBRF topped the top 3 advancers among the BIST30 stocks, whereas AKSEN and ODAS fell victim to profit-takings amid their recent rally, and were joined by KOZAA. One stock perhaps to keep an eye-out would be VESBE, as expectations are high of a better-than expected earning's release.
" As of yesterday's close, the TRY is trading slightly weaker against the USD at 26.95 and a tad weaker against the Euro at 29.78, whereas the DXY has inched slightly lower to 101.33.
" On the Bonds' side, the 2yr yields rose by 182bps to 16.23%, whereas the 10yr rates closed 219bps lower at 18.33%.
" On the commodity front, Brent is trading lower at USD 82.72, and both ounce and gram GOLD are trading flat this morning at USD 1962 and TRY 1700, respectively, ahead of tonight's FOMC meeting, where a 25bps rate hike in the hand, but the post-rate press conference by Jerome Powell will be the key guidance heading forward.
" The IMF increased it global 2023 growth rate to 3% from the previous 2.8%, but left it unchanged at 3% for 2024, well below the annual average of 3.8% during 2000-2019, due largely to weaker manufacturing in advanced economies. For Turkey, the global lender increased its growth rate by 0.3% to 3%, but lowered it for 2024 to 2.8% from 3.6%.
" The Real Sector Confidence Rate fell by 1.4pts in July to 106.8.
" Treasury and Finance Minister, Mr. Mehmet Simsek stated yesterday that the recent measures on selective loan rates and amounts were aimed at reducing the current account deficit, as well as reducing inflation in the mid-term.
AGENDA:
" There are no major macro releases on the local front, whereas the FOMC decision after the markets close will be the key international data release, prior to tomorrow's rate decision by the ECB.
" CBRT's 3rd Inflation Report Meeting will be held in Ankara tomorrow. We as TFG Istanbul will be in this meeting.
SECTOR NEWS:
" AUTOMOTIVE: According to the daily Ekonomim, amid the recent measures against automobile loans, cancellation for luxury car orders have started, and car purchases as an investment tool have declined. We deem a slowdown in luxury cars especially negative on DOAS shares as it is an import of luxury brands.
" DEFENSE: President Erdogan disclosed yesterday that they target an export of US$ 6bn and even higher amount in the sector for 2023.

COMPANY NEWS:
" YKBNK / KCHOL : Koc Holding agreed to sell 6.81% of YKBNK at TRY11.75/share corresponding to 12% discount to yesterday's closing price through an ABB. There will be TRY6.76bn cash inflow to KCHOL from this divestiture of 575mn YKBNK shares and its overall share in the bank will slide down to 61% following the completion of clearing on July 28th. Direct impact of this transaction is set to be downbeat for YKBNK shares and upbeat for KCHOL. However, it is worth highlighting that the free float of YKBNK will increase to 39%, which will enforce passive funds to increase their shareholdings in the bank. Increased float and a likely increase in daily trading volume may also turn the eyes of active fund managers towards YKBNK. We recommend investors to use an inevitable selloff on YKBNK today as an opportunity to build positions. The Bank trades at 0.5x 2024F P/B and at only 1.4x 2024F P/E. We have TRY20.5/Share target price implying 53% upside. BUY call maintained on YKBNK. As for KCHOL, following the start of sale process of TATGD, the divestiture of the YKBNK stakes brings the question of what KCHOL will be doing with the raised cash? Most probably the conglomerate may announce its interest in a controlling stake in a company soon. A potential candidate could be one of the state-controlled enterprises in our view.
" KOZAL: It was announced that the lawsuit filed by the plaintiffs for the company's positive EIA decision for the 3rd capacity increase project of the Çukuralan Gold Mine Plant annulment of the decision was not finalized but the appeal request of the plaintiffs was accepted which is a result against the company for now.


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
                           ***
                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.