TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• MSCI Asia is down by 0.7% this morning while US and EU futures are flat. We expect slight positive opening for BIST.
• Moodys underlined that the return to orthodox monetary policies in Turkey will boost the national banks’ profitability.
• According to Dankse analysts the Central Bank of Turkey’s interest rate increase of 6.5 percentage point (raising it to 15% from 8.5%) was not sufficiently enough to bring a stop to the continued decrease in Lira’s value. Nevertheless, it is expected that the Central Bank will gradually increase the interest rates to 25% in fight with high inflation and living prices.
• Global Times reports that China is looking to restrict the export of two valuable metals (gallium and germanium) that would ultimately disrupt the production of semi-conductors and electrical vehicles (EVs). This move is interpreted as a passive intervention by China to the world’s economy through trying to squeeze the global chips supply chain.

AGENDA
• Turkey’s inflation data will be released today at 10:00 GMT, different from that of May 2023, will include the energy (gas) prices. Analysts’ expectation is an increase of 4.5% m-m.
• Minutes of Fed’s June FOMC meeting will be released at 18:00 GMT. After that, New York Fed President, who is also the vice-chair of FOMC, will host a press conference at 20:00 GMT

COMPANY NEWS:
• MGROS: It is announced that 50% of CRC Danismanlik is purchased for US$2.9mn to support ready-to-go/packaged food sale channels and for employees’ meal needs. (25% to be taken over by MGROS, 25% by its subsidiary Digital Platform)
• NTHOL: It has been announced that the construction of 2 projects in TRNC has started.
• ASTOR: Sales contract amounting to EUR1.9mn for 2 power transformers was signed with a company in Spain. The ratio of the contract made to the revenue for the year 2022 is 0.73%.
• EGEPO: Nasmed Healthcare announced that an agreement has been reached with a company established in Paris-France, and within the scope of the agreement, patients will be brought from France for treatment.
• GRNYO: Within the scope of VBTS, a ban on short selling and credit transactions was imposed on company shares until 4 August.
• YEOTK: It was announced that a US$2.8mn contract was signed between the company and a customer in Azerbaijan for the establishment of an advanced Process Automation system.
• Banking sector:
• Thanks predominantly to trading gains, the Turkish banking sector’s net income increased by 22% m-m and 35% y-y resulting in a total of TRY45.6bn in May. Operational performance on the other hand, does not look promising. Net interest income worsened by 19% m-m and 38% y-y, respectively on the back of negative TRY core spreads that are going further south. The TRY core spread of the sector deteriorated from -0.5% to -1.7%, m-m. NIM of the sector also went down to 2.72% in May from 3.60% in the previous month. Despite worsening NII, surging trading income, inching up fees and NPL recoveries contributed positively to the monthly bottom-line. Monthly increase of 49% in trading income was driven through widening FX bid-ask spreads. Fees went up 7% m-m thanks to 4% monthly loan growth as well as the motivation of the banks to partially relegate the impact of lending rate caps. The 28% m-m increase in other operating income was caused mainly by the reversal of previous provisions. Consequently, the banking sector’s ROE went up by 6pp m-m to 35% in May (May 2022 was 41%).
• TRY core spread of state banks which has been in the negative territory for the previous three months further dived down by 2pp to -4.2%. Sacrificing profits to support economy growth is the key underlying motive behind state banks lower profit indicators as compared to other groups analyzed. Foreign deposit banks, represented by Garanti, on the other hand had its TRY core spreads worsened by 64bp m-m to 0.8%, yet it is worth praising that the figure is still in the positive territory. Meanwhile, private local banks’ performance in m-m core spread evolution was the best. Akbank, Isbank and Yapi Kredi are represented under this category. While this group’s TRY core spread is still in the negative territory, it is relieving to see that it almost stable m-m at -0.4%.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.