TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST suffered severe losses yesterday, mainly attributable to 3 major European countries closing their consulates in Istanbul citing security reasons which triggered panic sell-offs. Akbank and Garanti Bank management guidances indicating for 25-30% y-y EPS contraction did not help the mood. Surging time deposit rates and redemptions from equity funds also intensified the sell-off. When all was said and done, the BIST closed the day on a loss of 5.29% at 4713, consequently at its lowest point of the day, after having had peaked at 5014, with a turnover of TRY 78.7bn, with the turnover gradually receding, in-line with the risk aversion of investors. We are envisaging reactionary buying at the opening. However, if the market remains in the red, we believe that enforced selling of leveraged positions by brokers may again trigger limit downs in late afternoon.
• The Banks were the worst hit, falling by nearly 8%, and please recall our earlier calls that we recommend the stellar 4Q22 results as the perfect last exit, as it appears the best is over for the sector, and the REITs also fell by 7.26%, due to the rising local interest rates.
• SASA was the only BIST30 stock that managed to miraculously close in the green, just barely, whereas GUBRF, TKFEN and EKGYO were the most sold.
• Today, in-line with the global markets, we expect a positive opening after yesterday’s FOMC and Powell’s speech, which helped levy the U.S. market higher, after their initial negative trading.
• As of yesterday’s close, the TRY is trading slightly weaker against the USD at 18.82, and the Euro has surged to 20.74, whereas the DXY has fallen to 100.89, as of print. Both the 2yr and 10yr bond yields rose by 6bps and 9bps to 10.59% and 10.75%, respectively. The CDS rates fell by 17pts yesterday to 533.
• Yesterday’s post FOMC speech has the most impact on the commodities, rallying the Brent higher to USD 83.50, despite its fall below the USD 83 ticker due to both the increase in the US DOE stockpiles, coming in at 2,576mn barrels vs. the estimated 0.9mn barrels, showing that a slowdown in economic activity, thus contributing to the higher-than expected inventory, and ounce and gram GOLD have also risen to USD 1954 and TRY 1184. As such, we would expect the Mining stocks, such as KOZAL and KOZAA to perform well today.
• Yesterday, the much higher than expected U.S. Job Openings caused for the fall in the S&P, as it would cement the case for Fed Chairman Powell’s call to remain hawkish ahead of his speech yesterday.
• The FOMC raised interest rates by 25bps, as widely expected yesterday, followed by Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference, in which he stated that the economy’s disinflationary process had started, but that it was premature to declare victory against inflation. He added, “Given our outlook, I don’t see us cutting rates this year, if our outlook comes true, “If we do see inflation coming down much more quickly, that will play into our policy setting, of course.”
• Today, YKBNK (TFG: NI: TRY 18.068bn vs. Cons. TRY 16.491bn) and TOASO (Cons. NI: TRY 2.741bn) are expected to release their 4Q22 results.
4Q22 RESULTS:
• TSKB: Neutral. TSKB posted TRY1.41bn net profit in its 4Q22 financials, which is in line with analyst expectations.
NEWS FLOW:
• Turkey January PMI reading to 50.1 vs. 48.1 m/m
• SUWEN: Disclosed that the Turkish Retirement Pension bought 33,315 shares, thus increasing its share in the company to 5.01%.
• ALARK: Disclosed that 2 main shareholders have applied to make 6,144,685 shares each, tradable at the BIST.
• ASTOR: Disclosed signing a deal in Lithuania worth USD 8.9mn and in Spain for USD 2mn.
• SUWEN: Disclosed that it has signed a deal with a company in Turkmenistan to open 3 stores between 2023-2027, and that it has opened a new store in Istanbul, thus bringing the total store count to 162.
AGENDA:
• On the local front, the Weekly Foreigners’ Net Stock/Bond Investments will be released, whereas on the international front, the ECB rate decision will be followed by President Lagarde’s press conference, and the BOE will also be announcing its policy rate, whereas on the U.S front, factory orders, initial jobless claims, durable goods data will be released.

 
 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.