TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

POWELL’S SPEECH, AS WELL AS THE ADP FIGURES TO BE CAREFULLY MONITORED
• The BIST pared its morning losses, thanks to reactionary buybacks from the 4817 level to close 0.80% higher at 4962, and turnover of TRY 109.5bn.
• The Banks closed flat, whereas the Aviation stocks rose by over 4%, and the Industrials by 1.34%.
• GUBRF, SASA and THYAO led the gains among the BIST30 stocks, whereas SISE, TCELL and DOHOL, were the most sold.
• Today, we expect the positive mood to continue, and remain optimistic for the uptrend to continue until there is a sudden change in the local paradigm.
• Currently, the TRY is trading flat against the USD at 18.64, as of yesterday’s session close, and the DXY is at 106.50. The 2yr and 10yr bond rates fell by 6bps and 4bps respectively to 10.65% and 10.80%. The CDS rates will open the new day from the 532 level, after improving another 6pts from the previous day.
• On the commodity front, Brent has fallen to USD 84.93, despite rumours that OPEC+ may once again curtail production, and ounce and gram GOLD prices have risen to USD 1754 and TRY 104, respectively.
• Germany inflation figures came in-line with expectations at 11.3%, thus showing signs of easing, and rising optimism of a less aggressive rate hike from the ECB.
• Please note that SASA-HEKTS and YKBNK will start trading on the MSCI Standard Index, thus we may see some positive interest on the stocks.
NEWS FLOW:
• TRADE BALANCE: In the January-October period of 2022, exports increased by 15.4% compared to the same period of the previous year and reached US$209.3bn, while imports increased by 39.4% and reached US$300.4bn. In the same period, the foreign trade deficit rose by 168.3% from US$34bn to US$91bn.
• BANKING: According to the monthly BRSA figures, the banking sector profits rose by 408% in 10m22 to TRY 336bn, and an astounding 444% in November y/y to TRY 49.7bn. NPL fell to 2.23% from 3.5%, CAR came in at 19% and COR was at 15%. Total assets were TRY 13.5trn and loans TRY 7.04bn. CAR and Tier-I ratio increased by 41bps and 44bps to 19.2%and 15.0%.
• SASA: According to an interview in the daily Dunya newspaper, CEO Ibrahim Erdemoglu stated that he was annoyed by the high market cap of the company, and that he did not understand how the share price jumped to TRY 180 from TRY 60. He added that the company sold shares from the TRY 80 as to protect the small-investors, as he believed the price was too expensive and not worth being bought. This news coincides with the first day of Sasa’s inclusion in the MSCI Turkey Index as of today.
• FROTO: Will make a gross TRY 5.70 dividend payment today.
AGENDA:
• On the local front, the GDP will be released, with the consensus hinting at a 4.4% annual growth rate, whereas the most important news flow on the global arena will be the ADP Employment Change (Cons. 200k), Personal Consumption, Core PCE, Whole and Retail Inventories, JOLTS Job Openings, the Fed Beige Book, and of course, Fed Chairman Powell’s speech.
• Elsewhere, the EIA crude oil inventory will be released, and China PMI numbers will be disclosed.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.