TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

BIST MAINTAINS UPTREND-BUT STILL SHAKEY
• The BIST closed yesterday 1.17% higher, and above the key psychological 5k level at 5008.59, with a normalized turnover of TRY 93.2bn, after having had peaking at 5320, and bottomed at 4943.
• The Industrial and Banks led the gains, whereas the Energy and Mining stocks were the most sold.
• Thus, KRDMD led and SASA led the gains among the BIST30 stocks, closing limit-up, followed by TUPRS, whereas GUBRF, TAVHL and PGSUS were the most sold.
• Today, we expect a flat/slightly down opening, as the global markets are stressed by further rate hikes by the Fed, especially on the back of yesterday’s much higher than expected PPI figures.
• As of yesterday’s close, the TRY is trading relatively flat at 18.86 against the USD, but has strengthened against the Euro to 20.05, as of print, and the DXY is trading 0.5% higher at 104.41. The 2yr yields fell slightly by 3bps to 11.18%, whereas the fall in the long-term yields was more profound by 38bps at 10.95. This may be the time to mention that yesterday, JP Morgan published a report on Turkey on the aftermath of last week’s earthquake and expects a 100bps rate cut by the CBRT at next week’s MPC meeting, while raising the YE inflation rate to 46% from 43%.
• On the commodity front, Brent is trading lower at below the USD 84 level, and ounce and gram GOLD are at USD 1826 and TRY 1107, respectively, due to yesterday’s hawkish Fed-speak.
• Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said Thursday inflation remains too high and noted that she was open to raising rates by more than her colleagues wanted at their last monetary policy meeting. Mester, who does not have a vote on the FOMC, also stated, ““Setting aside what financial market participants expected us to do, I saw a compelling economic case for a 50-basis-point increase, which would have brought the top of the target range to 5%,”
• The EBRD said yesterday that the potential economic effects of the earthquake in Turkey could results in a loss of up to 1% of the country's gross domestic product this year, and subsequently revised down its 2023 growth rate to 3% from 3.5%.
• Today, HALKB is expected to announce its 4Q22 results.
4Q22 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
TURSG - Turkiye Sigorta: Positive: The insurance company posted TRY424mn net profit in its 4Q22 financials beating the consensus mean by 15%.
 
NEWS FLOW:
• PGSUS: Disclosed that its Jan23 PAX count rose by 38% to 2.14mn, and total capacity rose by 10pts to 84.5%. Int’l passenger count rose by 50%, whereas domestic passenger count rose by 25%.
• KOZAL: Will increase its paid-in capital by 2000% today.
• AKBNK: Disclosed that it will allocate 52mn shares in share buyback.
• ISCTR-Disclosed that it bought back 650k ISFIN- 100k ANHYT-and 100k ANSGR shares.: Disclosed they have made 650k, 100k, and 100k share buyback.
• HALKB: Disclosed that it bought back 2.5mn shares at TRY 10.31-10.64.
Foreign inflow into both equities and fixed income
• According to the CBRT data, non-residents bought US$131mn of equities and US$4mn of local bonds during the week culminating on February 10th, resulting in a net inflow of US$134 million once adjusted for price and exchange rate fluctuations. It appears that foreign investors were purchasers during the substantial stock market downturn that occurred in the aftermath of the agonizing and sorrowful earthquake. However, the non-residents net-net disposition has been to vend US$375mn of equities since the beginning of 2023. Foreign investors account for a 29.9% of BIST's free float, whereas their stake in bonds is stable at 0.80%.
AGENDA:
• There are no major macro flows from the local side, whereas on the international front, the German PPI figures will be released


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
                           ***
                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.