TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST closed a volatile trading session yesterday flat at 4361, with a turnover of TRY 109bn, with the Banks and the Conglomerates weighing down on the gauge, whereas the Energy stocks continued to outperform their peers, as well as the Telcos.
• TCELL, KOZAL and ASELS were yesterday’s most bought BIST30 stocks, whereas BIMAS was punished by investors for its poor financial results, and was followed by TKFEN and DOHOL shares at the bottom of the standings.
• Today, we expect to see a flat opening, and tight range trading ahead of today’s critical US CPI figures. Please note that the consensus stands at +0.6% m/m and 7.9% y/y. A readout greater than these figures has the potential to stress the markets as it would strengthen the Fed’s cause for the continuation of aggressive rate hikes, currently pricing a 50bps rate hike, with a 75bps rate hike potential standing at 30%.
• The TRY is currently trading flat against the USD at 18.60, and the DXY is flat at 110.19. The 2yr yields fell by 17bps to 14.48%, whereas the 10yr rates went the opposite direction by 14bps to 12.42%.
• On the commodity front, Brent has leaked further to USD 91.80, and both ounce and gram GOLD prices are trading at USD 1711 and TRY 1023, respectively.
• The Head regional EBRD Economist, Mr. Roger Kelly warned of downside growth risks for Turkey due to recession risks in Europe, as well as syndication rollover risks for Banks could create an overhang on the Current Account Balance.
3Q22 RESULTS: Please note that yesterday was the last day for the disclosure of the 3Q22 financial results
• BIZIM: NEUTRAL. Net profit for 3Q22 is at TRY31mn beating the consensus by 5%, the EBITDA however came in 10% below the estimates as the margin is 60bp below the consensus at 4.7%. The stock trades at a mere 2.1x EV/EBITDA and 10x P/E.
• DOAS: POSITIVE. While the TRY2.7bn 3Q22 net profit shows a 61% beat, the results when adjusted for deferred tax income is 8%. Still, operationally good results with EBITDA 13% better than expectations. The EBITA margin is 2pp higher than the consensus at 20%. The company’s TRY0.3bn net debt position in 2Q22 turned into TRY2bn net cash. Both P/E and Ev/EBITDA are at 4x. Solid results overall.
• PGSUS: POSITIVE. The all-time high TRY4.8bn net profit for 3Q22 is 18% above the consensus and the beat is fully operational. The EBITDA is TRY360mn (5%) above the consensus. On the back of such a strong profit, the net debt to EBITDA has come down from 9.3x to 4.0x q-q. If we are to annualize the quarterly numbers by multiplying by 4x, both EV/EBITDA and P/E are at an appealing 2x.
• SOKM: SLIGHTLY POSITIVE. The sales and EBITDA are in line with estimates but the net profit is 170% above the expectations. Net profit beat stems predominantly from deferred tax income.
• SELEC: POSITIVE. EBITDA is 29%, net profit is 25% above the expectations. The EBITDA margin of 8.3% surpassed the 5.8% expectation to a large extent.
• VESTL. NEGATIVE. Unexpected TRY301mn loss on the bottom-line vs TRY108mn consensus is set to be reflected negatively on the price. The EBITDA is also a disappointment lagging behind the consensus by 28%. Yout hought ARCLK’s EBITDA margin was a disappointment? Think twice. VESTL’s EBITDA margin came in at 6.5% vs 9.2% consensus.
NEWS FLOW:
• The Turkey Official Gazette published yesterday that the FX-linked deposits program would be extended until the end of 2023. Also, if asset management firms agree to liquidate their bad retail loans that are under TRY 2,500, they will get half of the principal from the government. The income tax exemption in energy renewables increased to 50kW from 25Kw.
• According to the daily Milliyet, VAT discount for new automobiles is currently being in the works. We deem this especially positive for DOAS automotive.
AGENDA:
• On the local front, Sep. Unemployment and Weekly Foreign STOCK/BOND investment change figures will be disclosed, whereas on the international front, the U.S. Inflation and Jobless Claims will be disclosed.


 
 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.