TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• Investors were on full “risk-on” mode yesterday, boosting the BIST100 3.66% higher to 4561, but still on a low turnover of TRY 42.3bn, thanks to the 8.37% gains in the Banks, followed by the Transportation and the Conglomerates.
• As such ISCTR, GARAN, AKBNK and YKBNK topped the BIST30 leaders’ chart, followed by KRDMD and KCHOL, whereas SASA, GUBRF and HEKTS were at the bottom 3, with SASA the only blue-chip stock to close in the red.
• Today, we expect a positive mood at the BIST to continue.
• As of yesterday’s close, the TRY is trading flat at 19.51 against the USD, but slightly stronger against the Euro at 21.44. On the Bonds’ side, the 2yr rates rose by 378 bps to 13.50, and the 10yr rates by 407bps to 12.78%.
• On the commodity front, Brent is trading at USD 76.82, and ounce and gram GOLD are at USD 2022 and TRY 1268, respectively.
• Yesterday, the Ukraine Ministry of Infrastructure accused Russia of bringing the grain corridor agreement to a halt. This may create an upward pressure on food inflation, but maybe positive on food companies, such as YYLGD and ULUUN.
• Today, DOAS, DOHOL, ISCTR and TCELL are expected to release their financials after the markets close.
1Q23 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
• AKSEN POSITIVE: Aksen has surpassed market expectations with a whopping TRY1.05bn net profit in Q1, a remarkable increase of 27.6%. EBITDA has skyrocketed by 60% quarter-on-quarter, soaring above market predictions to TRY1.8bn, with an impressive EBIDTA margin of 21.3%, exceeding expectations by 4.3pp.
• BIMAS: NEUTRAL: BIMAS’s 1Q23 top-line and EBITDA are in line with the forecasts, but the net profit missed the consensus by 21% predominantly on higher tax expenses. Worst is over in our view. 1Q23 net sales came out at TRY51.33bn (up 13 qoq), in line with market expectations and our forecast of TRY49.8mn. 1Q23 EBITDA was also in line with market expectation at TRY3.14bn as well as our estimate of TRY2.9bn. EBITDA was up by 36% yoy however contracted 21% qoq. Qoq contraction for the quarter was expected because of the earthquakes and early retirement scheme. Additionally, higher overhead costs and minimum wage hike pressured margins negatively in the first quarter. EBITDA margin came out in line with forecasts at 6.1%. Net profit stood at TRY1.35bn which was down 0.9% yoy and 60% qoq, also below market forecast and our forecast by 21% and 24% respectively.
• KMPUR : NEUTRAL: posted TRY150mn net profit in line with market expectations. EBITDA increased by 20% qoq to TRY220mn, in line with market expectations. EBITDA margin increased by 1pp to 13.6%.
• PETKIM NEGATIVE: PETKM - NEGATIVE - Petkim posted an unexpected TRY243mn EBITDA loss, while the consensus was looking for a TRY171mn positive figure. This is the second time in a row that the company posted an EBITDA loss. The net profit however ten-folded the TRY15mn expectation. Annualized net debt/EBITDA is now a massive 10x. The EBITDA margin is -3%, while the expectation was +2% as sales plummetted 20% y-y while COGS is holding up as commodity cycle continues the downtrend. PETKM trades at an unappealing 30x EV/EBITDA.The Ethylene-naphtha spread has seen a surge of 50% from USD184/ton in 4Q22 to USD275/ton in Q1Q23.
• SAHOL: NEUTRAL: Sahol's Q1 performance was satisfactory with a net profit of TRY6bn, slightly below market expectations by 6.7%. However, the net profit decreased by a significant 63% q-q and 26% y-y.
• SUNTK: Announced results in line with our forecasts in all items. EBITDA came in at TRY91MN, down 26.5% quarter-on-quarter, in line with our expectations. TRY30 million early retirement system expense was effective in this decline. Net income declined by 61% qoq to TRY86mn due to high base effect and earthquake tax.
• SUWEN: NEGATIVE: Posted net sales, EBITDA and net profit of TRY295mn, TRY61mn and TRY14mn respectively. Net sales, EBITDA and net profit posted qoq decline of 6%, 37% and 73%. Yoy growth for net sales, EBITDA and net profit was positive at 123%, 125% and 338%. EBITDA margin came out at 20.7% for the quarter vs 20.5% of last year.
• TTKOM: NEUTRAL: TTKOM's Q1 performance has been in line with expectations, with a net profit of TRY645mn, marking a 15% y-y increase. However, the company experienced a net loss of 254K subscribers, resulting in a total subscriber count of 52.5mn due to the impact of earthquakes and the ongoing contraction of fixed voice customer base.
NEWS FLOW:
• KRDMD: Disclosed that it has set aside TRY 750mn for share buyback program.
AGENDA:
• There are no major macro releases expected today, whereas on the global front, China will be disclosing its Foreign trade figures.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
                           ***
                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.