TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST100 closed the final day of the week on a gain of 2.48% to end the week at 74001, and on a turnover of TRY 136.6BN, thus returning a weekly yield of 4.72%, with the Banks rising 3.18%. THYAO, ISCTR and TUPRS were the most bought blue-chips, whereas GUBRF-ODAS and AKSEN closed in the red.
• Today, MSCI Asia is flattish, S&P 500 and Eurostoxx futures are up 0.4%. NFP gave mixed messages on Friday with 187k new jobs generated in July vs 200k expectation, which is parallel to FED’s aims. However, unemployment unexpectedly dropped to 3.5% from 3.6% and hourly earnings climbed 0.4% versus 0.3% growth expectation.
• We expect the upward BIST move to continue today as well.
• As of Friday’s close, the TRY has passed the 27 ticker and is currently weaker against the USD at 27.03, but flat against the Euro at 29.71, whereas DXY has risen to is at 102.16. The 2yr Bonds rose by 15bps to 15.55%, whereas the 10yr rates fell by 17bps to 18.59%.
• On the Commodity front, Brent is trading flat this morning at USD 85.92, after last week’s surge, and ounce and gram GOLD prices are lower this morning at USD 1937 and TRY 1682, respectively.
AGENDA:
• On the local front, we will be watching the Cash Budget Balance, TBA today and followed by the Unemployment Rate, Industrial production figures, Weekly Foreigner Net Weekly STOCK/BOND Holding, the Current Account Deficit, and Retail Trade figures.
• The most important global data for the week is the US July inflation that will be released on Thursday. 0.2% monthly, 3.3% annual figure is expected vs 3% in June. A lower figure will pull down the likes of further rate hikes from FED. Swaps are pricing 13.5% chance of a 25bp rate hike for September 20th meeting vs 24% a week earlier.
• Germany will release its July inflation tomorrow. 0.3% monthly, 6.2% annual inflation is expected. Annual figure is double that of the US, proving that the ECB should be more aggressive in rate hikes.
CORPORATE NEWS:
• SASA - NEGATIVE - Sasa posted a sizeable TRY3.2bn net loss in its 2Q23 financials that is the deepest ever figure on mounting financial expenses predominantly stemming from FX losses on its investment loans. The company currently trades at 91x EV/EBITDA and 79x P/E.
• SISE - NEGATIVE: Sisecam posted a disappointing EBITDA of TRY5.2bn for 2Q23, that is 6% less than analyst expectations and down by 8% q-q and 6% y-y. EBITDA margin was 130bp lower than expectations with 17.4% vs 20% in 1Q23 and 24% in 2Q22. The company posted 2Q23 net sales of TRY30bn inline with analyst expectations and up by 6% q-q and 29% y-y. While the net profit for the quarter stood at TRY5.7bn which was up by 19% analyst expectations we expect downbeat market reaction on softer EBITDA, particularly following very strong 2Q23 operational results of other Isbank subsidiaries.
• VESBE - POSITIVE: The company posted 2Q23 net sales of TRY11.4bn, 4% more than analyst expectations and up by 17% q-q and 51% y-y. EBITDA came out at TRY1.8bn, 12% more than analyst expectations and up by 127% q-q and 70% y-y. 2Q23 EBITDA margin was 110bp higher than expectations with 15.8% vs 8.1% in 1Q23 and 14% in 2Q22. Although the net profit for the quarter is 6% below expectations at TRY597mn, owing to higher financial expenses and FX losses. We expect positive market reaction thanks to solid operational performance.
• BANTS - NEUTRAL: The company posted 2Q23 net sales of TRY171mn, up 14% q-q and 35% y-y. EBITDA came out at TRY26mn, up 114% q-q and up just 4% y-y. Net profit for the quarter stood at TRY15mn which was also up 120% q-q and 14% y-y. Profitability was affected negatively mainly because of higher increase in COGS. 2Q23 EBITDA margin was 15.5% vs 8.2% in 1Q23 and 20% in 2Q22. We deem market reaction to financial results as neutral.
• ASTOR: 1. For the sales of Transformer products for 6 Power Transformer centers amounting to US$14.5mn has been signed between The Company and REPUBLIC OF IRAQ MINISTRY OF ELECTRICITY GENERAL COMPANY. The ratio of the contract made to the revenue of 2022 is 5.31%. 2. Power Transformer sales contract with a private company located in Spain amounting to EUR5.6mn has been signed. The ratio of the contract made to the revenue for the year 2022 is 2.04%.
• BAGFS & GUBRF & EGGUB & TKFEN: It is announced that the decision has been made in the investigation opened by the Competition Authority and there were no administrative fines to the companies.
• AUTOMOTIVE: According to the ADD, July automobile exports rose by 33.2%, and 16% for Jan-Jul23.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.