TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST closed the last day of the week, ahead of the much anticipated new cabinet meeting, on a gain of 3.3% at 5115, on a notable turnover of TRY 83bn, thanks to the 7% gains in the Banks, on the bet that former Finance and Treasury Minister, Mr. Mehmet Simsek would be head the new Ministry of Economy, and thus initiate a more orthodox monetary policy and ease regulations on the Banks.
• Indeed, over the weekend, Minister Simsek announced a return to “rational economics,” adding that Türkiye will have to dramatically change its economic policy in order to bring down rampant inflation. "Price stability will be our main target," Simsek added. "Reducing inflation to single digits in the medium term is of vital importance for our country."
• Today, we expect a positive opening at the BIST, on the back of Mehmet Simsek’s pro-orthodox market rhetoric. We expect to see the re-start of foreign inflows from today onwards as the institutional investors are likely to give the benefit of the doubt and start building their positions before seeing the results of Simsek’s policies. Furthermore, locals are likely to start getting positioned beforehand with the anticipation of potential foreign inflows.
• YKBNK, ISCTR were followed by SASA among the highest gainers among the Blue-chip stocks, and although there were no stocks in the red among the BIST30 stocks, TOASO, AKSEN and KOZAL and KOZAA lagged their peers.
• For the week, the benchmark rose by 11.66%, thanks to the 18.48% gains in the Banks, followed by the 14.18 gains in the Mining stocks, followed by the 13.29% rise in the Conglomerates and 10.79% rise in the Industrials. The TRY weakened by nearly 5% against both the USD and the Euro.
• Goldman Sachs revised its Turkish lira forecast in the wake of President Tayyip Erdogan's cabinet revamp, saying it now expected the currency to weaken to 28 to the dollar in 12 months compared with a previous prediction of 22.
• As of Friday’s close, the TRY is trading weaker against both the USD and the Euro at 21.10 and 22.50, respectively, whereas the DXY has risen over the weekend to 104.17, as of print.
• On the Bonds’ side, both the 2yr and 10yr yields rose by 165bps and 289bps to 13.47% and 11.98%, respectively.
• On the commodity front, Brent is trading higher at USD 76.95, on the back of Saudi Arabia’s pledge that it will voluntarily cut supplies by 1mn/day in July to 9mn from 10mnand whereas ounce GOLD has fallen slightly to USD 1945, gram GOLD prices have risen to TRY 1320, due to the weakening TRY.
NEWS FLOW:
• CONSTRUCTION: According to media reports, local construction companies have received a total of USD 6.5bn tenders from abroad in the 5m2023, with the lion’s share going to Russia and Turkmenistan, followed by Libya and Kazakhstan. The main tenders included housing, as well as road and bridge constructions.
• TTRAK: Disclosed that it will increase its paid-in capital by 87.50% to TRY 100.1mn
AGENDA:
• The local Inflation readings will kick-off the new week, estimated at -0.30% and 39% y/y, followed by the REER, Weekly Change in Foreigners’ STOCK/BOND positions, and concluding with the Industrial Production numbers, whereas the international audiences will be watching the US PMI figures, and Trade Balance, the Eurozone will be disclosing their Inflation readings and GDP growth rates, and China will release its Trade Balance and Inflation readings.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.