TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST closed slightly negative yesterday, by dropping 0.04% at 4484, and turnover of TRY 41.1bn, despite strong gains peaking at 4578, before realizing profit-takings towards the end of the session. The European markets closed lower due to both post-ECB press conference by Christine Lagarde where she reiterated sustained rate hikes in smaller increments but for a longer duration, and 1Q23 poor financial results also weighed down on the European markets. The US markets also closed negative for a fourth straight session due to the renewed banking worries.
• The Banks and Transportation stocks weighed down on the gauge, whereas the Conglomerates and the Energy stocks softened the blow. Thanks to yesterday dovish rhetoric from Fed President Powell, the Mining stocks also moved up in tandem with the rising GOLD prices.
• As such, KOZAA, HEKTS and PGSUS were yesterday’s biggest positive movers among the BIST30 stocks, whereas TUPRS, ENKAI and GARAN were the most sold.
• Today, we expect the BIST to open positively, on the back of the expected rebound in the global markets.
• As of yesterday’s close, the TRY is trading slightly lower at 19.50 against the USD, and weaker against the Euro at 21.53, and the DXY is has fallen to 101.16. On the Bonds’ side, the 2yr rates are continuing to ascend, albeit to slower pace by 38bps to 7.60%, and the 10yr rates fells by 82bps to 12.28%.
• On the commodity front, Brent is trading higher at USD 73.10, and ounce and gram GOLD are flat at USD 1282 and TRY 2047, respectively.
• The ECB hiked interest rates by 25bps yesterday, in response to rising inflation rates, and President Lagarde signalled that the rate hikes were not yet over. We expect EURUSD to climb up to 1.15 in the next three months. Stronger EUR and weaker USD works to the favour of TR’s trade balances.
• On the local front, details of the free natural gas usage conditions have been published in the Official Gazette, with the estimated burden expected to be around TRY 40bn.
• Today, AGHOL is expected to release its 1Q23 results after the markets close, we expect net profit of TRY560mn, up 7% quarter-on-quarterand CW Enerji will start trading today under the CWENE.E ticker.
1Q23 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
• ALBRK: NEUTRAL: Albaraka reported 1Q23 net income of TRY517mn in line with market consensus of TRY495mn.
• ENJSA: NEGATIVE: The company posted disappointing financials in terms of profitability. 1Q23 EBITDA came out 28% below expectations at TRY2.2bn despite 27% better top-line, indicating 8% EBITDA margin vs the 13% consensus. Net profit on the other hand stood at TRY370mn which was 58% below expectation. TRY785mn of the TRY370mn bottom-line stemmed from deferred tax reversal.
• CIMSA: SLIGHTLY POSITIVE: 1Q23 net sales were in line with estimates at TRY2.4bn while EBITDA exceeded expectations by 10% and stood at TRY314mn. The company posted EBITDA margin of 13.3% vs forecasted 11.9%. Net profit for the quarter lagged expectations by 26% and came out at TRY252mn.
NEWS FLOW:
• ALKIM: Disclosed that they will resume potassium sulphide fertilizer production.
• ENSRI: Disclosed that it has reached an agreement with a US brokerage firm to be listed in the Nasdaq.
• KOZAL: Disclosed that it will distribute gross TRY 1.2bn dividends on July 14th.
• ORGE: Disclosed that it has obtained a €9mn metro work order.
• GWIND and BIZIM will distribute gross TRY 0.51 and TRY 0.83/share dividends today.
AGENDA:
• On the local front today, there are no major local macro releases expected, whereas the US NFP figures, where the expectation is at +185k, will be carefully monitored, and the European markets will disclose the Retail Sales figures.


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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