TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• Despite a shaky start to the session, due to both the negative mood in the global markets, and media speculations that the CBRT was preparing to unveil a high yield “Super-Bond,” investors that rolled the dice betting that this was just barber-shop chatter, came out as relative winners. A BloombergHT report stated that the officials with knowledge of the matter denied such the preparation of a “Super-Bond” as it would create a further burden on the Treasury but were brainstorming on TRY and investment-supportive new ideas. News on “no-super bond” triggered risk-on mode across the board at around 4pm local time, consequently diverging positively from its international peers, but a sell-off came towards the close wiping away some of the gains.
• Global markets on the other hand were hit by both Fitch’s US downgrade, which JP Morgan Head Jaime Dimon called “ridiculous” adding “It doesn’t really matter that much,” because it’s the market, not rating agencies, that determines borrowing costs, coupled with the much higher than expected ADP figures.
• In contrast to Dimon’s comments, apparently rating downgrade mattered much for the market as the US 10y surged to 4.14% this morning. Fitch has actually done what FED had to do; cooling down the economy through higher rates. That is why the likes of a rate cut at just 39% chance for March 2024 is now up to 55% as of today.
• When all was said and done, the BIST closed at 7259, a gain of 1.26%, and accompanied with a turnover of TRY 148.4bn, slightly less than the recent TRY 170bn’ish volume. The gains were led by the Banks and Transportation stocks-rebounding after the previous day’s losses on the hopes and sector players’ push that the CC instalment ban on ticket purchases will be overturned.
• GARAN-ASELS and AKBNK were the biggest movers yesterday upwards, whereas KRDMD, ODAS and ENKAI were not so lucky, and found themselves at the wrong end of the spectrum.
• Today, we expect yesterday’s positive mood to spill over to the opening.
• As of yesterday’s session, close, the TRY is trading slightly weaker 26.97 against the USD and tad weaker against the Euro at 29.54, whereas the DXY has risen considerably to 102.81. The 2yr bond yields closed 5bps higher to 15.64%, whereas the 10yr rates fell by 17bps to 18.59%
• On the Commodity front, Brent is trading lower at USD 83.29, due in part to the hangover from Fitch’s rate cut on the US, and ounce and gram GOLD prices are trading calm this morning at USD 1935 and 1678, respectively.
AGENDA:
• Today, the most important macro release on the local side will be the July CPI numbers, estimated at 8.15% m/m and 46.80% y/y, as well as the weekly Net Change in Non-Resident STOCK/BOND holdings. On the international front, the BOE will be announcing it rate decision, as well as the PMI figures from Germany and the US.
CORPORATE NEWS:
• MIGRS - POSITIVE - 2Q23 financial results of the company came out better than expectations. Net income of TRY1.5bn is 40% above the expectations of TRY1.1bn. The increase in net profit was 167.8% q-q and 240% y-y. In the last quarter net sales and EBITDA increased by 21.2% and 22.9% q-q. EBITDA margin, on the other hand, worsened to 6.6% from 8.9% in the same quarter of the prevous year and imroved from 6.5% in 1Q23. The company made revisions to its 2023 guidances. Consolidated sales growth expectation revised up to 90% from 80-85% for 2023. EBITDA margin expectation was at the level of 7.0-7.5% revised to 6.5-7.0%. The target for opening 365 new stores for 2023 was increased to approximately 450 stores and investment expenditures revised from TRY4bn to TRY6bn.
• ANSGR - POSITIVE- 2Q23 financial results of the company came out well above expectations. Anadolu Sigorta reported TRY3.2bn net profit vs TRY689mn consensus mean for 2Q23. Net income of TRY3.21bn is 366% above the expectations of TRY689mn. The increase in net profit was 1394% y-y. General Technical Section Balance went up by 1280% y-y from 294mn in 2Q22 to 4,057mn in 2Q23.
• ISMEN -POSITIVE - Is Yatirim posted TRY2.9bn net profit for 2Q23, which is almost double that of TRY1.46bn consensus.
• ISBANK - POSITIVE - We expect positive reaction not only on Anadolu Sigorta and Is Yatirim shares but indirectly on Isbank as well.
• HALKB: The decision to increase the registered capital ceiling of the Bank from TRY10bn to TRY30bn approved at the General Assembly.


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.