TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

" As widely expected, the BIST pared its previous day's losses yesterday by rising 1.49% to 4960, however, on a lower turnover of TRY 58.8bn, led by the gains in the Banks, thanks to the "Simsek" rally, but saw profit-takings from close to the 5k level. The European markets also closed positively yesterday, thanks to the lower-than-expected inflation reading, and yesterday, the Senate passed the Debt-Ceiling Bill, thus relieving the international markets.
" Reportedly, Simsek needed assurance regarding the Central Bank management and interest rates. After receiving that word from President Erdogan, with whom he had met twice, Simsek agreed to undertake the management of the economy. (Hurriyet Daily-Abdulkadir Selvi)
" At the BIST30, ARCLK, AKBNK and ODAS were the most bought, whereas TOASO saw profit-takings after yesterday's formal inclusion into the MSCI, and KOZAA and AKSEN also fell victim to profit-takings after their recent good run as well.
" Today, we expect the positive mood to continue, and would once again keep an eye on the Private Banks to outperform their peers.
" As of yesterday's close, the TRY is trading weaker against the USD 20.91, and weaker against the Euro at 22.51, whereas the DXY is slightly higher compared to yesterday's session closing figure of 103.54.
" On the Bonds' side, the 2yr rates rose by another 18bps to 11.82%, whereas the 10yr rates are as flat as a straight edge.
" On the commodity front, Brent is trying to pare its recent freefall, and is higher this morning at USD 74.90, and ounce and gram GOLD prices are trading a tad higher at USD 1980 and TRY 1332.
" Türkiye's PMI figures came in at 51.5.
" During the nail-biting runoff election week after the first round, foreign investors decided to bid adieu to a whopping US$379mn worth of equities. However, they didn't completely lose faith on the TRY bonds side and managed to add a mere drop in the ocean, amounting to US$1.6mn. So far this year, foreign investors have bid farewell to a substantial US$1.5bn equities. It's worth noting that their stake in the free float has continued to dwindle from 30.2% before the election to a meagre 27.4%. In comparison, their presence in the bond market remains minuscule, at just 0.6%.
" During the week that ended on May 19th, the marginal commercial loan yields decreased by 1.4pp to reach 14.5%. Marginal commercial rates have been struggling to break through the formidable 17% barrier since the beginning of 2023. The 3-month TRY time deposit rates continued their ascent, shattering records and soaring to a staggering 32.4%, the highest they've been in two decades. The negative marginal TRY core spreads continue to widen to a staggering -18%, marking the lowest negative spread recorded in the past two decades. We have witnessed that Turkish lira core spread of banking sector have already became negative at -0.5% in April according to monthly banking data.
NEWS FLOW:
" Accordingly to Bloomberg, Saudi Aramco has met with Turkish companies for a potential USD 50bn building spree. We deem this news to be especially positive for TKFEN shares.
" The CMB has approved the IPO of A1 Capital Brokerage Firm at listing price of TRY 25/share.
" ORGE: Disclosed that for 2023, it expects revenues and operating revenues to increase by 50%.
AGENDA:
" There are no major macro releases expected today, with the exception of the expected new cabinet disclosure by President Erdogan, whereas the US will disclose the May NFP figures, as well as the Unemployment and earnings figures.
 
 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.