TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST closed the final trading session of the year 0.59% higher at 5509, and turnover of TRY 115.6bn, thanks to the gains in the Industrial and Conglomerate stocks, whereas the Banks diverged negatively, losing 1% due to intensified regulatory pressure expectations.
• GUBRF saw reactionary gains, after the general sell-offs in the fertilizer stocks, thus topping the BIST30 movers’ list, and was followed by TTKOM and ASELS shares, whereas ARCLK faced profit-taking, and fell by 3%, and was joined by VESTL and YKBNK.
• For the week, the BIST managed to close 1% higher, thus paring its losses observed on Tuesday and Wednesday, whereas on a sector basis, the Conglomerates and the Banks lifted the benchmark higher, whereas the Aviation stocks, due to the increasing Covid cases in China, and worries that it may expand globally, and the Energy stocks, due to profit-taking after Erdogan’s surprise announcement of the discovery of an additional natgas reservoir, were the most sold sectors. The USD was flat, whereas the Euro appreciated by 0.95% against the TRY, and whereas Brent fell slightly, both ounce and gram GOLD prices rose by over 1.50% each.
• Now, looking at the year behind us, the BIST100 was the best performing primary market, closing out the year on a gain of 197%, and 110% when converted to USD, whereas the second-best performing index was the Argentina Merval, rising by just 40% USD terms! GESAN, KONTR and SMRTG were the most bought stocks, whereas only AKGYO and TSPOR closed the year in the red among the BIST100 stocks.
• The Banks closed the year, 215% higher, and the Conglomerates 217%, whereas the Transportation stocks were the best performing stocks, thanks to the normalization of air travel, rising by 538% ytd, and the Energy stocks rose by 381%, due to the push for renewable energy sources. The TRY devalued against the USD and Euro by 40% and 33%, respectively.
• Looking at the year ahead, we expect the Banks to announce strong 4q22 quarterly results but see this as an opportunity to underweight the sector and switch to export companies instead.
• Today, we expect a slightly positive opening at the BIST.
• As of Friday’s close, the TRY is trading a tad weaker against the USD at 18.72, and flat against the Euro at 20, whereas the DXY is flat at 103.50. The CDS will open the New Year from the 512 level, trading flat on Friday.
• On the commodity front, Brent has risen to USD 84.32, and both ounce and gram GOLD prices are higher at USD 1827 and TRY 1099, respectively.
• ECB President, Christine Lagarde indicated borrowing costs will increase again, saying this is required to temper soaring consumer-price growth.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin allowed natural-gas buyers from “unfriendly” countries to pay debts for fuel in foreign currency, partly lifting a requirement for ruble-only payments.
• According to the US Center of Disease Control, there is a new Covid omicron variant, XBB1.5, has nearly doubled in prevalence over the past week and now represent about 41% of the new cases in the U.S. The new variant is said to be highly immune evasive and is quickly becoming dominant in the U.S., doubling weekly. We deem this development especially negative on Airline stocks, and perhaps oil, if there will be a slow-down in production, and positive on Gold prices.
NEWS FLOW:
• BANKS: The CBRT widened the scope of its securities maintenance regulation to include other financial institutions in addition to banks, such as factoring stocks. The CBRT also abolished keeping TRY RR in gold, decided to count FX repos as FX deposits and will start considering off-bs FX assets as FX deposits in the calculation of long-term TRY bond buying requirement. These new macroprudential measures are likely to provide support on TRY and help pull down long term bond yields.
• CEMENT: The Competition Board stated that it has begun an investigation to 17 firms located in Ankara and Kirikkale for price collusion.
• AVIATION: The UK will require visitors from China to test negative for Covid-this may create an overhang on Aviation stocks.
• AKBNK: Disclosed it will liquidate its 40.46% partnership with LYY Telecommunications
• ASELS: Disclosed that is signed a USD 102.3mn deal with the Turkish Defence Industry on Friday.
• FRIGO: Disclosed that it signed a USD 1.5mn deal with an overseas client
• GUBRF: Disclosed that it was entering the last phase of its Sogut Gold Mining project
• TTKOM: Disclosed that its subsidiary TT Ventures has received permission to build and expand electrical charging stations.
AGENDA:
• On the local front, the PMI will kick-off the New Year’s agenda, followed by the CPI (m/m: 2.23% vs y/y: 66.70%), the REER, Weekly Foreigners’ Net Stock/Bond holdings and the Cash Budget Balance, whereas on the international front, the US will be following the PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, FOMC minutes, ADP Employment, Change in NFP and Payroll figures, and the EU will be disclosing the PMI, Trade Balance, PPI, and estimated CPI figures.


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.