Morning Report (Trive Yatırım Menkul Değerler )

MOODY’S OVERHANG CONTINUES
• The sell-offs on the aftermath of Moody’s continued yesterday as well, coupled with their report yesterday, which we will discuss further, with the BIST100 shedding a further 0.83% to close at 7726, and turnover of TRY 81.9bn, with some reactionary buybacks coming from the dip at 7643.
• The Banks were the most sold, falling by an average 2.41%, whereas the Iron & Steel stocks managed to diverge positively from their peers.
• Thus, looking at the blue-chip movers and shakers, EREGL-KRDMD and ASELS were the most bought whereas the selling appetite on GUBRF shares continued again, and followed by HEKTS and BIMAS shares.
o TKFEN shares also continued to be severely punished on the back of the losses incurred at Qatar, whereas AEFES topped the charts among the BIST100 stocks after disclosing yesterday that it AB InBev sold its Russian operations to Anadolu Efes.
• This morning, the TRY is trading flat at 29.09 against the USD, but a tad stronger against the Euro at 31.90, while the DXY is slightly higher at 102.20. The 2yr rates rose by 31bps to 36.98%, whereas the 10yr rates were unchanged at 25.44%.
• On the Commodity front, Brent is trading slightly higher this morning at $79.30, and Ounce and Gram GOLD are flat at $2040 and TRY 1908, respectively. The 5yr CS rates will start the new day from the 289 level.
• Yesterday, Colombia started the easing cycle with a cautious 25bps rate cut, its first cut in 3 years.
• Moody’s disclosed its much anticipated reasoning to leaving both the credit rating and outlook unchanged on Friday, thus surprising many investors. Accordingly, the ratings agency stated that the credit view reflects economic strength and moderate debt, against an erosion of institutional and governance strength which even in a positive scenario will take time to be recovered. However, adding that Turkey’s outlook may be changed to positive “if the tight monetary stance is being maintained and wage agreements are compatible with the CBRT’s objective to materially bring down inflation. Moody’s warned that excessive wage increases could furhter increase demand-led inflationary pressures, and that “A sharp slowdown in growth constitutes another risk as it would increase the risk of another policy reversal, back to the previous unorthodox policies.
o As for forecasts, Moody’s sees the economy growing 4% in 2023, 2.5% in 2024 and 3% in 2025, CPI to be 53.5% in 2023, 58.9% in 2024, and 39.1% in 2025, while the CAD/GDP ratio is expected at 4.7%, 3.4% and 3% for the respective years.
• Fitch disclosed yesterday that its credit rating evaluation for Türkiye will be set for March 8, and September 6, respectively, which currently stands at “B” “Stable.” Director of EM Sovereign Ratings, Paul Gamble, stated yesterday that the economic environment in Türkiye was favourable for foreign investors, but still needed time.
AGENDA:
• The Consumer Confidence Levels will be disclosed on the Homefront, whereas on the international arena, investors will be following the US Existing Home Sales Figures and Conference Board Consumer Confidence data, along with the German PPI, and UK CPI figures.
CORPORATE:
• AEFES: Disclosed yesterday shortly before the start of the session that Anheuser-Busch InBev agreed to sell its stake in a Russian joint venture to partner Turkish brewer Anadolu Efes. As such, Anadolu Efes will be the sole owner of the business, and AB InBev won’t receive any payment upfront, and instead will receive compensation later depending on how well the business performs. According to KPMG, the Russian unit is valued at $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion, according to KPMG, which made a valuation for Anadolu Efes.
• MPARK: Disclosed that it will reduce its capital to TRY 191mn from the current TRY 208mn, as it seeks to redeem its 17mn shares, equivalent to 8.18% of the company’s shares.
• GESAN: Disclosed that it signed a $13.4mn wind energy agreement.
• ORGE: Disclosed that it signed a €7mn +TRY 65.9mn electrical agreement for Bursa metro project.
• YKSLN: Disclosed that it will increase its paid-in capital by 100% via bonus issue to TRY 250mn from the current TRY 125mn level.
BIMAS/TCELL: Will distribute gross TRY 3 and TRY 1.02 div/shares today, respectively

 
 Trive Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  https://www.trive.com.tr/

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                        Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.