Market Watch(Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Thursday, March 16, 2023
Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Wednesday on a positive trend, but then followed a selling course amid rising profit sales to close at 5,121.57, down 1.65%. While the Industrial Index fell 1.42% the Banking Index diverged positively, up 0.55%. Despite the weak short-term outlook, we maintain our positive outlook until the elections. However, political developments and expectations ahead of the elections set for May 14 could increase volatility. Major global stock markets remain concerned over the banking system after the bankruptcy of U.S. bank SVB. While sales were observed in the U.S. and European Stock Markets yesterday, a mixed course was dominant in Asia. A positive trend is observed in the U.S. futures and German DAX futures this morning, while Asian Stock Markets are predominantly selling. The VIX has once again scaled 26, indicating increased volatility in the U.S. Stock Markets. Locally, the VIOP-30 Index closed the evening session up 0.30%. We expect the Benchmark Index to start positively this morning with the support of reactionary purchases, although the fluctuating weak course is set to continue for some time. SUPPORT: 5,080 - 5,000 RESISTANCE: 5,175 - 5,222.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.08% compared to the USD to close to 18.9891. In addition, the currency appreciated by 0.83% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were relatively flat. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 11.11%-11.29%, ending the day at a high of 11.29%, 4 bps above its previous closing.
Headlines:
*** While the budget deficit realized at 170.5 billion TL in February, the primary balance yielded a deficit of 136 billion TL. The sharp rise of current transfers in expense items since the disaster is striking: According to the February central government budget data published by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, budget revenues were at 219 billion TL and budget expenditures at 389 billion TL. In the same period, non-interest budget expenditures were realized as 355 billion TL. In light of this data, the budget deficit was 170.5 billion TL, while the primary balance posted a deficit of 136.3 billion TL. The amount paid for CPD from the Treasury this month was 0.63 billion, while the transfer to BOTAS was 16 billion TL. While CPD and BOTAS payments reduced the burden on the budget, current transfers, especially in support of the disaster area, increased the burden on the budget. Especially after the earthquake, transfers to infrastructure and households in the region will create significant deviation from the budget. The first half of the year presents a negative outlook for public finances when the inflationary effects of the deficit created by the public sector are considered.
There was an average 94% increase in budget expenditures compared to the same period of last year. Capital transfers (4.815%), capital expenditures (464%) and current transfers (161%) were the items with the highest expense increases. When we consider net increases instead of ratios, the effect of inflation and commodity prices seems clearer. While personnel expenses increased by approximately 40 billion TL, current transfers increased by 120 billion TL. The average annual increase in budget revenues is around -19%. The highest increase was experienced in domestic VAT (152%) and SCT (126%). On the other hand, corporate tax contracted sharply, down 78 billion TL (94%) compared to the previous year. Considering the new public expenditures and one-off transfers, it seems that the rise in budget expenditures will continue. In addition, although the decline in corporate tax has followed a calmer course, we expect a near-flat course in other income items due to inflation and exchange rate effects. When all these developments are evaluated, it emerges that the risks to the budget performance have accumulated. For our detailed analysis, please click the link;
Company News:
Sabanci Holding (SAHOL.TI; OP) has announced a buyback on Borsa Istanbul of a nominal 500,000 of its own shares, representing 0.0245% of the Company's capital at within a price range of 41.32-42.50 TRY/share.
Sisecam (SISE.TI; OP) has announced that a total of 801,500 nominal shares (total amount of TRY 36,901,060) were repurchased within a price range of TRY 45.72 - TRY 46.30 per share (average price TRY 46.04) at the BIST on March 15, 2023. Total repurchased shares to date correspond to 1.921% of the company's capital.
VakifBank (VAKBN.TI; MP) has bought back 1.34mn of its own shares (0.02% of its paid-in capital) within a TRY9.37-9.63 share price range as part of its share buyback program of up to TRY150mn nominal shares and TRY1bn value. (Total amount bought: 62.2mn shares, which is 0.87% of its paid-in capital (Neutral).



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  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.