Market Watch(Şeker Yatırım)

The BIST 100 Index started Monday on a negative trend, recovered with purchases throughout the remainder of the day and closed at 8,087.24, up 0.76%. The Industrial Index rose 0.46% and the Banking Index continued its positive divergence, up 2.75%. While the transition to rational policies continues, expectations that currently-limited foreign purchases will rise in the future continue to support the BIST. However, the attractiveness of alternative income instruments is increasing, and higher stock loan interest rates may curb investor interest. Global markets started the new week with profit-taking. Following the rise of the past few weeks, profit realization is being observed in the indices. This morning, the U.S. futures, German DAX futures and Asian Stock Markets are following a selling trend. However, as long as the perception that the Fed's interest rate hikes are coming to an end continues, we expect risk appetite to remain strong, withdrawals to present buying opportunities, and the uptrend in the major stock markets to be maintained. The VIOP-30 Index ended the evening session down 0.03%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Tuesday slightly negatively and any intraday rises will prompt profit-taking at certain levels. SUPPORT: 7,960 - 7,900 RESISTANCE: 8,090 - 8,180.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.01% compared to the USD to close to 28.9069. In addition, the currency appreciated by 0.08% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were positive. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 27.08%-27.46%, ending the day at a low of 27.08%, 46 bps below its previous closing.
Headlines:
*** CPI rises 3.28% mom in November and annual inflation prints at 61.98%. While the rate of increase in inflation decelerates, the monthly rise in housing prices reaches double digits despite tight monetary policy… CPI increased by 3.28% mom in November, while annual inflation rose to 61.98% (previous 61.36%). Market expectations were that inflation would increase by 3.5% mom and 62.3% yoy (Seker Investment expectations were 3.6% mom and 62.4% yoy). The lower-than-expected level of inflation is a sign of a better-than-expected stabilization in price dynamics. The average of food, housing and transportation inflation, which has a 57% weight in the index, rose by 59.31% yoy. In the same period, monthly inflation in the Special CPI Aggregate B index (core inflation) was realized as 2.53% while annual inflation was realized as 67.27%. A decline in the trend of core inflation indicators below the general price level is one of the prerequisites of achieving permanent price stability. Therefore, we find the developments in core price dynamics favorable. On the other hand, despite the tight monetary policy stance, the monthly acceleration in housing prices to 11.17% makes the accessibility of basic needs especially questionable. We foresee developments in the last month of the year being in line with expectations and expect to end the year at these levels.
Producer prices rose by 2.81% mom in November, while the annual change in PPI was 42.25%. The positive atmosphere in the PPI-CPI gap, which started after June, continues (about 16 points in favor of CPI). The long-lasting high course in producer prices has become relatively calm due to base effects and recovery in the global supply chain. In the near term, we can say that the cost of producer prices to consumers has decreased to a great extent. When we consider the sub-indices of PPI, annual changes in the main industrial groups were realized as a 46.45% increase in intermediate goods, 61.16% increase in durable consumer goods, 68.11% increase in non-durable consumer goods, 5.91% decrease in energy, and 65.21% increase in capital goods. While the momentum in energy prices was pulled by the base effect and global recession concerns, we expect the cost pressure from this item to increase through 2024. For our detailed analysis, please click the link;
Sector News:
***November 2023 Domestic Automotive Market Results: According to the domestic retail sales figures announced by the Automotive Distributors’ and Mobility Association (ADMA), the passenger car and light commercial vehicle market rose by 39.8% YoY to 115,040 units in November 2023 (November 2022: 82,311 units). In the January-November 2023 period, the passenger car and light commercial vehicle market grew by 60.8% YoY to 1,073,982 units compared to the same period of last year (January-November 2022: 668,063 units). Retail sales of passenger cars climbed 54.4%, up from 59,222 units to 91,424 units YoY, while those of light commercial vehicles rose by 2.3% from 23,089 to 23,616 units YoY in November 2023. In the January-November 2023 period, retail sales of passenger cars rose 66.2% YoY to 840,925 units from 505,886 units compared to the same period of last year, while the retail sales of LCVs climbed 43.7% YoY to 233,057 units from 162,177. Tofas' (TOASO.TI; OP) passenger car sales declined by 12.9% YoY, from 10,621 (monthly) in November 2022 to 9,254 in November 2023. Passenger car sales under the Fiat brand (lower-middle segment) also declined by 15.5% YoY to 8,581 units. Tofas’ light commercial vehicle sales rose by 79.0% YoY to 7,424 units (November 2022: 4,147 units). Ford Otosan's (FROTO.TI; OP) LCV sales declined 52.1% YoY to 3,973 units in November 2023 (November 2022: 8,287 units). Dogus Otomotiv's (DOAS.TI; OP) passenger car sales rose by 77.0% YoY, from 7,734 (monthly) in November 2022 to 13,693 units in November 2023. Dogus Otomotiv’s LCV sales declined by 30.0% YoY to 1,163 units (November 2022: 1,662 units). In terms of market share, Dogus Otomotiv’s market share rose by 1.5 pp to 12.9% in November 2023, while Ford Otosan's market share declined to 6.5%, down 4.6 pp in November 2023. Meanwhile, Tofas' market share fell by 3.4 pp in November 2023, to 14.5% from 17.9% in the same period of last year.
Company News:
Aselsan (ASELS.TI; OP) has signed an agreement with the Presidency of The Republic of Türkiye Defence Industry Agency regarding the development, production and integration of Electronic Warfare Systems for Unmanned Air Vehicles for TRY 556.7mn and USD 30.3mn. Deliveries will be completed between the years of 2025 and 2029. The latest deal (~USD 49.6mn) represents 0.5% of the company’s total backlog (Positive).
Garanti BBVA (GARAN.TI; OP) has received a dual-currency syndication for USD259.5mn and EUR142.5mn (Total amount: USD415mn) with 367-day maturity. The rollover rate was 100% (Vakifbank (VAKBN.TI; MP): 113%) while the all-in costs were Sofr+350bps and Euribor+325bps, respectively, 75bps lower than the bank’s latest borrowing in June (Positive).

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  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.