Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Thursday, July 20, 2023
Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Wednesday on a slightly positive trend, closing the day at 6,571.28, up 3.24%. While THYAO, AKBNK, KCHOL, TCELL, TUPRS made the highest contribution to the index on a point basis, the Banking Index rose 4.28% and the Industrial Index gained 2.35%. Factors such as the preference for gradual normalization post election, continuation of the negative real interest rate policy, and foreign inflows support the BIST. Yet it is quite normal to experience occasional profit realizations. In the medium term market direction will become clear once the steps to be taken and the economic program are known. Locally, we think that the interest rate decision and supporting text to be issued after today's CBRT meeting will increase volatility in the BIST and other TRY-based assets. The market expectation is that the policy rate will be increased to 20% by 500 bps. We expect the policy rate to rise by 350 bps to 18.5% while maintaining our expectation of a gradual and moderate rise in interest rates. The signals to be given on monetary policy implementations in the next period and the discourse on macro/micro precautionary measures will be followed as closely as the interest rate decision. In major global stock markets while risk taking appetite remains, the balance sheet season is also awaited. Yesterday, Indices in the USA, Europe and Asia closed with limited rises. U.S. futures and Asian Stocks are mixed this morning, with German DAX futures trading somewhat negatively. The VIX is hovering around 13, continuing to point to low volatility and selling pressure in the U.S. Stock Markets. Despite short-term profit sales in major global stock markets, we expect the uptrend in risky assets to continue, with declines presenting buying opportunities unless macro data points to a recession, or weak earnings reports emerge. The VIOP-30 Index closed the evening session up 0.98%. We expect the Benchmark Index to start Thursday with a rise. And while the uptrend continues throughout the day, a fluctuating course may be observed with profit-taking in evidence. SUPPORT: 6,480 - 6,430 RESISTANCE: 6,662 - 6,763.
Money Market:
The Lira was positive yesterday, gaining 0.16% compared to the USD to close to 26.8876. In addition, the currency appreciated by 0.32% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were negative. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 18.24%-18.57%, ending at the 18.49%, 25 bps above its previous closing.
Headlines:
On the macroeconomic data agenda, the Central Bank's interest rate decision will be announced today. The market expectation is that the policy rate will be raised to 20% with an increase of 500 basis points. As Seker Investment, we maintain our expectation of a gradual and moderate increase in interest rates. Our expectation that the policy rate will increase by 350 basis points to 18.5% continues. The signals to be given about the monetary policy implementations in the next period and the discourses on macro/micro prudential measures will be followed as closely as the interest rate decision. We will publish our detailed analysis after the decision within the day.
Sector News:
The ceiling price to be applied on domestic flights has been increased by 43% from TRY 1,150 to TRY 1,650 (Positive for aviation sector companies).
Company News:
Aksa Energy (AKSEN.TI;OP): The company and the Cyprus Turkish Electricity Authority (KIB-TEK) have signed a 15-year, USD-based lease and operating agreement for the Northern Cyprus Kalecik Combined Cycle HFO Power Plant, owned by Aksa Energy and located in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), with KIB-TEK. The Aksa Energy has stated that within the scope of the signed contract a 35 MW capacity increase would be made at the aforementioned plant, owned by the company. With the capacity increase the installed power of Aksa Energy in the TRNC will reach 188 MW (Positive).
Sabanci Holding (SAHOL.TI; OP) has bought back 25,000 of its own shares (0.0012% of its paid-in capital) within a TRY 50,50/share price as part of its share buyback program of up to TRY 102mn nominal shares and TRY 3,250mn value (Neutral).
TSKB (TSKB.TI; OP) has received a dual-currency sustainability-linked syndication for USD17.5mn and EUR94mn (Total amount: USD123mn) with a 105% rollover rate and 367-day maturity (Positive).

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                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.