Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Thursday, April 20, 2023
Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Tuesday with sellers. The Benchmark Index then recovered amid afternoon purchases led by the Banking Index to close at 5,018.70, down 0.80%. The Banking Index diverged positively, gaining 3.60% while the Industrial Index rose 0.42%. Election uncertainty and the expectation that orthodox policies may be adopted thereafter, plus the rise in deposit rates, including Currency Protected Deposits imply selling pressure for the BIST. In light of these, we expect purchases ahead of the election to prompt selling. The fluctuating course will continue within the broad band that the Index has seen since the start of the year. Incidentally, we expect stock and sector-based divergences to impact the market in the short term with the effect of the 1Q23 results season that started yesterday with Arcelik. The balance sheet season is also followed in major global stock markets. While the recovery trend in risk appetite is maintained, we think that the earnings reports may also impact risk appetite in the short term. Yesterday, US indices, European indices and Asian markets observed a mixed course. This morning US and German DAX futures have traded with selling and Asian indices are mixed. Domestically, the VIOP-30 Index closed the evening session up 0.65%. We expect the Benchmark Index to start Thursday negatively and thereafter pursue a volatile course. SUPPORT: 5,012 - 4,955 RESISTANCE: 5,105 - 5,176.
Money Market:
The Lira was positive yesterday, gaining 0.03% compared to the USD to close to 19.3986. In addition, the currency appreciated by 0.05% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were relatively flat. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a tight range of 12.13%-12.17%, ending at the 12.17%, unchanged from its previous closing.
Company News:
The US Supreme Court has rejected the objection that HalkBank (HALKB.TI; MP) was exempt from criminal proceedings under the "Foreign State Immunity Act". However, they have ordered the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to reconsider HalkBank's effort to dismiss the case.

Arcelik announces TRY 1,074mn net profit in 1Q23. (1Q22: TRY 1,165mn, 8% decrease YoY). Reported net profit was compatible with the market expectation, Research Turkey survey (TRY 1,007mn) and our (TRY 1,119mn) expectation. Despite lower costs, financial expenses and expenses from other activities suppressed net profit. The net profit margin has risen to 2.9% with a 1.4pt YoY decline.
The company's sales revenues amounted to TRY 39,891mn. (1Q22: TRY 28,164mn, +42% YoY). We expected the company to generate TRY 39,430mn of sales revenue this quarter, compared to the market average expectation of TRY 39,807mn. Despite lower demand from abroad, strong domestic demand and price hikes supported revenues.
The share of exports in sales revenues decreased. While the share of exports in total sales decreased to 62%, the share of domestic sales was 38%. (In 2022 and 2021 the share of domestic sales was 30%).
The company booked TRY 3,673mn of EBITDA; somewhat above our TRY 3,576mn estimate and in parallel with the market's TRY 3,671mn estimate. In 1Q23, the EBITDA margin was 9.3% (1Q22: 10.7%).
The company has maintained its guidance for 2023. Accordingly, it forecasts a 45% rise in consolidated revenues. The company targets a 10% EBITDA margin and EUR 300mn investment expenditures.
Dividend. Arcelik is to pay a cash dividend of TRY 2.6637 gross (TRY 2.3974 net) per share. This corresponds to a dividend yield of 0.2.29% (gross) according to the latest closing price. The payment will be made on 27 September 2023.



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  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.