Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Tuesday, July 18, 2023
Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Monday on a positive trend, maintained its strength throughout the day and closed att 6,600.46, up 2.53%. SISE, BIMAS, THYAO, SASA stocks made the strongest contribution to the Index on a points basis, while the Industrial Index rose by 2.04% and the Banking Index rose by 0.92%. We think that the negative real interest rate policy, which will continue for a while during the gradual normalization period, will continue to be supportive of the BIST in the short term. In addition, while the strong foreign inflow to the BIST continued for the fifth week in a row, the recently developed positive relations with the USA and the EU also support the general positive pricing in BIST and TRY-based assets. However, we think that it is normal to experience periodic profit realizations, as the BIST has achieved a rapid rise in a short time. In the medium term, we think that the direction of the markets will become clear after the steps to be taken and the economic program to be announced are known. In major global stock markets, the strong course of risk appetite continues. While the U.S. Stock Markets ended the day with a rise yesterday, the U.S. futures are slightly negative this morning, while German DAX futures and Asian Stock Markets in general have a positive trend. The VIX hovers at around 13, indicating low volatility and selling pressure in the U.S. Stock Markets. Despite short-term profit sales in major global stock markets, we expect the uptrend in those markets and risky assets to continue, as long as there is no macro data to indicate a recession, by using the declines as a buying opportunity. The VIOP-30 index ended the evening session up 0.41%. Locally, we think that the Benchmark Index may start the day positively and that the uptrend will continue with buying opportunities being taken, even if there are pullbacks during the day. SUPPORT: 6,552 - 6,476 RESISTANCE: 6,640 - 6,731.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.68% compared to the USD to close to 26.3445. In addition, the currency depreciated by 0.65% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were relatively flat. The ten-year benchmark bond ending at 17.02%, unchanged from its previous closing.
Headlines:
*** While the budget deficit realizes at 219.6 billion TL in June, the primary balance yields a deficit of 182.2 billion TL. The June cost of KKM to the treasury exceeds 20 billion TL: According to the June central government budget data published by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, budget revenues were 268.2 billion TL and budget expenditures were 487.8 billion TL. In the same period, non-interest budget expenditures were realized at 450.5 billion TL. In the light of these data, the budget deficit was 219.6 billion TL, while the primary balance printed a deficit of 182.2 billion TL. No transfers were made for BOTAS in June. On the other hand, the treasury support paid to KKM accounts increased sharply to TL 20.6 billion. We have stated that the costs of BOTAS on the budget will decrease with the summer months. However, due to the exchange rate volatility experienced especially in the post-election period, KKM costs have exceeded predicted levels. In the January-June period, the exchange rate difference payment made over the treasury was 25 billion TL. We think that the main impact on the budget comes from the current transfers channel. While current transfers in the January-June period last year were 490 billion TL, they exceeded 1 trillion TL this year.
There was an average 130% increase in budget expenditures compared to the same period of the previous year. Interest expenses (193%) and goods and personnel expenses (153%) were the items with the highest increase in expenses. Considering the level of increase instead of the rate increase, current transfers constitute the primary burden on the budget with an increase of 156 billion TL. The average annual increase in budget revenues is 48.2%. The highest increase was in corporate tax (177%) and bank and insurance taxes (121.8%). The sub-items that contributed to budget revenues at the highest level were VAT and SCT on imports. The negative contribution of current transfers to the budget balance seems to be compensated by VAT and SCT revenues from imports. One of the implicit messages extracted from this table is that import demand is strong despite the exchange rate level. From this, we can say that domestic goods are still relatively expensive compared to imported goods. We anticipate that this effect will disappear with stabilization of the exchange rate. For our detailed analysis, please click the link;
Company News:
Aselsan (ASELS.TI; OP) has signed an international sales contract with one of its international clients for the supply of defense systems for USD 123.5mn. The latest deal represents 1.5% of the company's total backlog (Positive).
The Capital Markets Board has approved the application of partial demerger transaction of Koç Finansal Hizmetler A.Ş. ("KFS") shares with a nominal value of TRY 15.001.230,08 in Aygaz's (AYGAZ.TI; N/C) assets corresponding to 3.93% of the registered KFS capital, to Koç Holding (KCHOL.TI; OP) through a partial demerger transaction through the share transfer model together with all its rights and debts, in accordance with the principle of universal succession.

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  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.