Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Outlook:
On February 8, 2023, Borsa Istanbul announced that the transactions of the Equity Market and Equity & Equity Derivatives Markets within the Futures and Options Market were suspended until Tuesday evening, 14 February 2023.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.06% compared to the USD to close to 18.8440. In addition, the currency depreciated by 0.26% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were relatively flat. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a tight range of 11.29%-11.39%, ending at the 11.36%, 6 bps above its previous closing.
Headlines:
*** As the Current Account Balance prints a USD5.9 billion deficit in December, the 12-month cumulative current account deficit rises to USD48.8 billion: According to the balance of payments data, the current account balance in December yielded a deficit of US dollars 5.910 million. As a result, the twelve-month current account deficit became USD48,769 million. As Seker Investment, we had a current account deficit forecast of USD 5.7 billion, which is above the market average (USD5.45 billion deficit). With these results, we note that the data is slightly above our expectations. The increase in the foreign trade deficit defined in the balance of payments to USD8,089 million and the decrease in inflows from the balance of services to USD2,498 million were effective in this development. Our expectation was that the current account deficit outlook would deteriorate as the seasonal effects of the positive contribution to the balance of services fade. With the latest data, both the trade deficit increased and the contribution from the services balance decreased, in line with our expectations. The low interest and high inflation environment continues to feed both credit and imported goods demand.
The current account, excluding gold and energy, posted a surplus of USD3.525 million this month. Despite the calm course in commodity prices, imports of intermediate goods deteriorate the total current account balance, while the positive course in core indicators continues. We think that the steps that can reverse the course of the structural trade balance problem will be achieved through production transformation that will create added value, and that the channels that feed imports should be relatively narrowed in this process. On the other hand, cheap financing conditions and low interest rates continue to pressure the current account deficit. We think that the improvement in indicators excluding gold and energy will remain more positive than the total current account deficit. The recession risk and the slowdown in energy imports support this thesis. In Turkey, which closed 2022 with a current account deficit of approximately USD49 billion, we expect a slowdown and stabilization in production in the first half of 2023, in parallel with the calm course. For our detailed analysis, please click the link;

Şeker Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
www.sekeryatirim.com
 

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                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.