Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Tuesday, September 12, 2023
Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Monday on a positive trend, tested a new peak of 8,403, but faced strong profit sales to close the day at 8,146.49, down 2.15%. The Banking Index diverged negatively, down 5.51%. After the strong short-term rally at the BIST, profit sales are experienced due to the loss of momentum in domestic and international investor demand and the absence of any significant expectations. Although there may be occasional reaction purchases in the market, we think that these will offer a selling opportunity for the short term. However, since the high inflation and negative real interest environment will continue for some time yet, even if there is profit-taking, it will in turn present a buying opportunity for the medium term. In addition, the meeting of Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Simsek with foreign investors in the USA on September 19 may keep expectations alive, prompting buying. While the weak course in global risk appetite continues, major stock markets ended Monday with a general increase. Risk appetite will likely remain weak and a volatile course will be observed in foreign markets until the Fed's interest rate decision. Relative to the BIST close, U.S. and German futures have seen a limited positive trend, while Asian Stock Markets observe a mixed trend with negative weight. The VIOP-30 Index completed the evening session with a limited negative trend. Locally, the Benchmark Index seems set to start Tuesday somewhat negatively. And despite any intraday rises, profit-taking pressure on the Index will continue in the short term. SUPPORT: 8,126 - 8,005 RESISTANCE: 8,228 - 8,298.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.14% compared to the USD to close to 26.8850. In addition, the currency depreciated by 0.33% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were relatively flat. The ten-year benchmark bond ending at 20.76%, unchanged from its previous closing.
Headlines:
*** Industrial Production contracts slightly by 0.4% mom in July, in line with expectations, while annual production growth maintains its strong momentum at 7.4%: According to the Industrial Production Index, seasonally- and calendar-adjusted production contracted by 0.4% mom and increased by 7.4% yoy in July. Despite the market’s contraction expectations, we expected a limited positive increase. The course of monthly production data shows that the production momentum could not increase at the desired level, despite periodic fluctuations. Both the slowdown in orders due to global recession expectations and the earthquake disaster plus tight liquidity in Turkey are the key dynamics behind the slowdown in production momentum. As updated in the Medium-Term Plan (MTP), 2023 may bring macro-financial stability, but may see production data fall short of potential growth in the short term. Both the upward pressure on the exchange rate and the tightening of financing conditions support this thesis. Liquidity and financing conditions seem to favor equity-heavy sectors in this period. In particular, companies whose cash flow is not sensitive to the economic cyclicality will be positively differentiated.
Analyzing the sub-sectors; in July, the mining and quarrying index increased by 1.7% yoy, the manufacturing industry index increased by 7.4% yoy and electricity, gas, steam, and the air conditioning production and distribution index increased by 4.1% yoy. By monthly change levels, the mining and quarrying sector index increased by 10.5%, the manufacturing industry index decreased by 1.4%, and the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning production and distribution sector index increased by 3.7% compared to the previous month. While the strong trend of annual increase in the manufacturing industry continues, the monthly contraction reflects tightening macro financial conditions. Seasonal effects came into play in energy production, leading to an increase over the summer season. Although the tightening in liquidity conditions affects production data, the impact of the monetary policy stance on indicators such as production and the current account balance will be monitored, which limits the effects of a sudden stop or slowdown in the system. We continue to expect downward rebalancing in growth and production indicators in the second half of the year. For our detailed analysis, please click the link;
*** Current Account Balance posts a deficit of 5.47 billion USD in July, while 12-month current account deficit was 58.5 billion USD. Despite the positive course in the services balance, deterioration in the goods balance continues to feed the current account deficit… According to balance of payments data, the current account balance posted a deficit of US dollar 5,466 million in July. As a result, the twelve-month current account deficit reached 58,517 million USD. As Seker Invest, we had expected a current account deficit of 4.1 billion USD, below the average market expectation (4.4 billion USD deficit). The realization was above both market and our expectations. This was driven mainly by the rise in the balance of payments-defined foreign trade deficit to USD 10,477 million and the rise in services inflows to USD 5,999 million. Despite tightening credit and liquidity, domestic demand for imported goods remains buoyant. The relative cheapness of foreign goods at the current exchange rate level is another factor triggering the current account deficit. Despite the positive contribution of seasonal effects to the services balance, the current account balance may deviate from the targets in the Medium-Term Plan for the rest of the year. In order for the current account balance outlook to become permanently positive, the impact from the credit channel in particular should weaken. We expect this cycle to continue until the CBRT-induced selling pressure on the exchange rate returns to the current account deficit and stabilizes the foreign trade balance.
The current account excluding gold and energy posted a surplus of USD 717 million this month. Considering the strong summer gold demand, this decline seems normal. We expect the negative impact of loose monetary policy on the current account balance to diminish, although this will take time. Core inflation indicators, while remaining positive, are well below the recent average. Depending on the extent of monetary policy tightening, we expect the current account balance to follow a calmer course starting from the second half of the year.
Analyzing the developments in the financial account, net inflows in direct investments amounted to USD 392 million. Portfolio investments posted a net inflow of USD 1,160 million. Non-residents made net purchases of US dollar 734 million and US dollar 18 million in the stock market and government domestic debt securities market, respectively. Regarding loans obtained from abroad, the general government, banks and other sectors realized net repayments of USD 35 million, USD 483 million and USD 181 million, respectively. For our detailed analysis, please click the link;
Sector News:
In order to support selective credit use and exporters' access to finance, the CBRT has raised the daily disbursement limits for export and foreign exchange earning services rediscount loans to TRY3bn (USD112mn) from TRY1.5bn (USD56mn). It was stated that the share of SMEs will continue to be increased and export performance will be taken into account in the disbursement of rediscount credits.
Company News:
Sisecam (SISE.TI; OP) has announced that a total of 1,642,968 nominal shares (total amount of TRY 89,131,014) were repurchased within a price range of TRY 53.65 - TRY 54.60 per share (average price TRY 54.25) at the BIST on September 11, 2023. Total repurchased shares to date correspond to 1.474% of the company's capital (including the disposal of a portion of the repurchased shares).



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  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.