The BIST100 Index started Wednesday on a positive trend, peaked at a record 7,336 and closed at 7,258.54, up 1.26%. While the Banking Index diverged positively, up 3.15%, the Industrial Index rose by 0.64%. Factors such as gradual normalization, the continuation of the negative real interest rate policy, and strong foreign inflows continue to support the BIST. Stock-based divergences also remain supportive during to the balance sheet period. There may be periodic profit-taking in the Benchmark Index, which has recorded an increase of 58% in the post-election period. Among the major global stock markets there was selling midweek after rating agency Fitch downgraded the U.S., citing budget problems. In addition, rising bond yields in the USA were another factor suppressing risk appetite. This morning the U.S. futures and Asian Stock Markets have generally been somewhat positive, while German DAX futures are slightly negative. The VIX has risen from 13 to 16 indicating that selling pressure in the U.S. Stock Markets has increased. We expect the rise in major global stock markets to continue with limited profit sales unless data points to a recession. On the macroeconomic data agenda price indices for July will be announced today. The market expectation is that CPI will rise by 9.2% monthly, while our expectation is for an 8.9% monthly rise. The VIOP-30 Index closed the evening session down 0.05%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Thursday with a positive trend. Despite any intraday rises we expect a weak fluctuating course to invite profit-taking. SUPPORT: 7,214 - 7,108 RESISTANCE: 7,356 - 7,480.
The Lira was positive yesterday, gaining 0.001% compared to the USD to close to 26.9658. In addition, the currency appreciated by 0.15% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were positive. The ten-year benchmark bond was ending at 18.59%, 17 bps below its previous closing.
Price indices for July will be announced today. The market expectation is that the CPI will rise by 9.2% month on month and 47.44% year on year in July. As Seker Investment, we forecast 8.9% monthly and 47.1% annual inflation in July. The main reasons for our forecast, which is slightly below the market expectation, are that the exchange rate pass-through will spread over time, and delays in consumer price adjustments. Our detailed analysis after the data emerges will be published within the day.
580 (monthly) in July 2022 to 12,373 in July 2023. Passenger car sales under the Fiat brand (lower-middle segment) rose by 10.7% YoY to 11,615 units. Tofas’ light commercial vehicle sales also rose by 115.5% YoY to 6,863 units (July 2022: 3,185 units). Ford Otosan's (FROTO.TI; OP) LCV sales rose 137.7% YoY to 9,542 units in July 2023 (July 2022: 4,014 units). Dogus Otomotiv' (DOAS.TI; OP) passenger car sales rose by 149.5% YoY, from 6,880 (monthly) in July 2022 to 17,166 in July 2023. Dogus Otomotiv’s LCV sales also rose by 80.8% YoY to 1,392 units (July 2022: 770 units). In terms of market share, Doguş Otomotiv's climbed 1.8 pp to 16.5% in July 2023, while Ford Otosan's market share rose to 10.4%, up 1.7 pp in July 2023. On the other hand, Tofas's market share decreased by 9.3 pp in July 2023, to 17.1% from 26.4% in the same period of last year. (Positive for Doguş Otomotiv & Ford Otosan in terms of market share gain and solid vehicle sales in both PC & LCV, and slightly positive for Tofas due to its market loss in passenger cars despite a strong performance in LCV sales).
HalkBank (HALKB.TI; MP) has approved the proposal to not to distribute dividends from its 2022 earnings at its Annual General Meeting (AGM) on 2nd August 2023 (Neutral).
Migros (MGROS.TI; OP) announced a net profit of TRY 1,500mn (2Q22: TRY 441mn net profit) in 2Q23, above the average market (TRY 1,074mn net profit) and our expectations (TRY 1,195mn net profit). The Company posted a high net profit this quarter, thanks to the gain from the sale of a non-current asset for TRY 288mn in 2Q23, and TRY 923mn of financial income due to the strong rise in FX gains & interest income on bank deposits.
On the sales revenue side, the Company saw 106.4% YoY top-line growth and TRY 32,951mn of net sales in 2Q23, in line with the market expectation of TRY 31,186mn, and our estimate of TRY 31,346mn (2Q22: TRY 15,963mn). In 2Q23, with the rising number of stores & the growth of sales areas, solid growth in customer traffic & basket size and the positive contribution of online sales channels (share of total sales (exc. tobacco & alcohol) in 6M23: 16.7%,), net sales revenue rose 106.4% YoY. With growth in online sales channels, the number of online stores (6M23: 1,028 stores, +73) and successful store operations, net sales revenue was strong in 2Q23.
Considering the Company’s FMCG market share development; in the modern FMCG market, it had a 16.0% (6M22: 14.4%) market share in 6M23, and 9.4% (6M22: 8.3%) of the total FMCG market. In addition, its store number rose by 419 compared to 6M22 to 3,100 stores in total in 6M23. In parallel to this development, its sales area rose by 8.6%. Meanwhile, the positive course of customer traffic in stores reflected well on the sales performance.
The Company announced an EBITDA of TRY 2,183mn on a rise of 54% YoY in 2Q23, in line with the market expectation of TRY 2,169mn, and ours of TRY 2,286mn (2Q22: TRY 1,416mn). As a result, the 2Q23 EBITDA margin was at 6.6%.
FY2023 expectations: The Company has announced its net sales growth estimate to ~90% (Previous: ~75%-80%), and its EBITDA margin growth estimate of ~6.5%-7.0% (Previous: ~7.0%-7.5%). At the same time, it targets opening new stores to a total of ~450 (Previous: ~365+) overall by the end of 2023, and plans for TRY 6,000mn (Previous: TRY 4,000mn) of investment expenditure (Positive).
VakifBank (VAKBN.TI; MP) has approved the proposal to not to distribute dividends from its 2022 earnings at its Annual General Meeting (AGM) on 2nd August 2023 (Neutral).