TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

BIST ENDS VICIOUS SELL-OFF CYCLE
 
oThe BIST100 closed Friday on a gain of 0.58%, but on a rather unconvincing, or shall we say cautious, ahead of a nervy weekend, turnover of TRY 104.1bn, led by the gains in the Transportation-more precisely Autos, and the Banks, while the Conglomerates and the REITs underperformed the benchmark. News flow from media reports that cease-fire mediations accelerated, helped buoy the BIST higher on Friday.
o PETKM-GARAN and ENKAI led the gains among the blue-chips, whereas KCHOL-ERELG and SASA found themselves at the bottom of the listings.
o For the week, the BIST managed to end the week on a gain of 2.61%, thus snapping its 2-consecutive sharp losses, but still has a way to go, as it is still 8.97% in the hole for the last 3 weeks!
o The Transportation stocks listed the gauge by rising on average 4.62%, and the Banks recorded a gain of 3.92%, while, despite the surge in Gold prices, the Mining stocks continued to lose their shine, falling by another 3%, on top of last week's 14% losses! The TRY weakened against the USD and the Euro by 0.66% and 0.34%, respectively, and the rise in the 2yr and 10yr yields continued by another 13.17% and 1.17%, respectively.
o On the commodity front, Brent fell by 2.79% due to heightened concerns of a global recession, while ounce and gram GOLD rose by 1.23% and 1.97%, respectively. Ounce GOLD is trading over the $2000 level for the first time since May 23.
o As of Friday's closing numbers, the TRY is trading considerably weaker against the USD at 28.26, but slightly weaker against the Euro at 28.83, while the DXY has risen, as of print, to 106.61, and the 2yr and 10yr Bond yields will open the new week from the 34.63% and 28.32%, respectively.
o On the commodity side, Brent is trading lower at $88.05, and whereas ounce GOLD has fallen slightly to $2001, gram GOLD is flat at TRY 1818, due to the rise in the USD/TRY parity.
 
AGENDA
 
o The local agenda will kick-off with the Economic Confidence level for October, and followed by the Trade Balance, Foreign Tourist Arrivals, PMI, Weekly Net Change in Foreign STOCK/BOND holdings, and Inflation (CPIe: +4.75 mm/61.53% yy; PPIe: 3.40% mm/47.44% yy). The Cabinet will also convene today under President Erdogan. GARAN (TFG: TRY 18.848bn); ANHYT (Est: 790mn); AKSA (Est: TRY 945mn) and TKNSA are expected to release their 3Q23 results today.
o On the international front, the most important news release will be the FOMC decision, but expected to remain unchanged, as well as the ADP, PMI, NFP and Unemployment Figures from the US. The Eurozone and Germany will be disclosing their inflation figures as well, and the PMI figures, while the BOE will also be disclosing its policy rate this week.
 
3Q23 RESULTS
 
o SISE-POSITIVE: SISE reported Q3 Net Sales of TRY36.41bn, 2.2% above the consensus. The EBITDA totaled TRY7.41bn and beat analysts' consensus estimate by 19.1%. The quarter's EBITDA margin reached 20.3%, which is also above the consensus estimate of 17.4%, and could indicate an improved operational efficiency of the company. Finally, the Net Profit totaled TRY5.29bn, 40.3% above market expectations. There is no significant deferred tax income effect detected. We expect a positive market reaction.
o ECILC - NEUTRAL: In the 3Q23, the company reported Net Sales of TRY1.24bn, surpassing the consensus estimate by 5.9%. The EBITDA for the same period was TRY266mn, exceeding the consensus estimate by a significant 47%. However, the Net Profit showed a sharp decline, reaching a negative figure of TRY333.7mn, contrary to the consensus estimate of TRY278mn profit. However, the adjusted Net Profit value was TRY55mn. The EBITDA margin improved and outran the consensus estimate by 6pp reaching 21.5%.
 
CORPORATE
 
o ALARK: Disclosed that its subsidiary, Alarko Tarim, has purchased 80k shares of Genseed Tohum, for $4.3mn.
o BIENY: Disclosed that it will increase its capital to TRY 250mn from TRY 60mn.
o CWENY: Disclosed that it has signed a $1.1mn agreement with a local company.
o MARKA: The company announced that it started negotiations with domestic and foreign companies to invest in nursing homes and health investments and also in Istanbul.
o ONCSM: Disclosed a Chemotherapy Drug Preparation Service contract was signed between the company and Antalya Training and Research Hospital for TRY 27.7mn
o TRCAS: Disclosed Shell & Turcas Petrol, in which the company has a 30% stake, decided to distribute a dividend of TRY 400mn and TRCAS's dividend share is expected to be TRY 120mn and to be transferred to accounts shortly.
o TMPOL: The Ground type GES installation project with a capacity of 5.4 Mw was approved by TEDAŞ.
o ZOREN: Disclosed an application was made to the SPK regarding the merger of the company with Alkan Energy by way of acquisition.
 
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