TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST opened the week, but perhaps more importantly, the day after the Presidential elections, on a gain of 4.10% to close at 4769, with a relatively higher-than usual turnover of TRY 70.9bn, with the government contracted stocks outperforming their peers. All blue-chip stocks managed to close in the positive territory, whereas on the BIST100 side, there were 99 stocks that closed positively, and just 1 stock in the negative territory, that being the beer producer AEFES.
• Today, we expect yesterday’s celebratory gains to continue at the opening fuelled by Simsek-backed optimism as well as weaker TRY, which is set to benefit exporters and the stocks with FX income streams.
• As of yesterday’s close, the TRY is trading weaker against both the USD and the Euro at 20.23 and 21.62, respectively, and the DXY is has risen to 104.45.
• President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Mehmet Simsek, the former Minister of Economy, yesterday. Reportedly Mehmet Simsek finally accepted Erdogan’s offer. We know from Erdogan’s recent speeches that he will not be allowing orthodox policies. We believe that instead of the 8.5% policy rate, interest rates on TRY time deposit could be actively utilised as the new policy tool to curb down consumer demand as well as the inflation and going forward. Erdogan is expected to announce his cabinet as soon as Friday.
• Türkiye’s National Statistics Agency disclosed that due to the 1 month free usage of natural gas, the Agency will price May’s natural gas usage as “0,” thus the May inflation reading is expected to fall drastically due to this pricing. Please recall that for June 2023-May 2024 period, natural gas usage up to 25m3 will be free, and thus, inflation is expected to rise again towards the end of the year. Lower headline inflation may have downbeat impact on return on CPI linkers for banks.
• Stock market details from yesterday: The Industrial, Mining and Energy stocks managed to outpace the benchmark, whereas the Banks rose by a mere 2.13%, as widely expected. ASELS closed limit-up, and was followed by AKSEN and KRDMD, whereas ISCTR, GUBRF, and KCHOL lagged behind the gains among their peers.
• On the Bonds’ side, whereas the 2yr yields fell by 69bps to 10.43%, the 10yr rates were unchanged at 9.09%.
• Looking at the commodities, Brent has fallen as of yesterday to USD 76.43, and whereas ounce GOLD has fallen to USD 1936, as a consequence of the rise in the USD/TRY parity, gram GOLD is slightly higher at and TRY 1260.
• The Economic Confidence level in May rose by 1.4pts to 103.7.
NEWS FLOW:
• AKSGY: Disclosed that it has managed to record TRY 214mn profit from the 1270 sqm sale of its land in Caddebostan/Istanbul for TRY 335mn. Slightly positive for the stock price.
• MGROS: Will distribute gross TRY 2.60/share dividends today.
AGENDA:
• April Trade Balance will be disclosed on the local front, whereas on the international side, US May consumer confidence levels will be disclosed. Today, we welcome back our colleagues from the US and the UK.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.