TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST100 closed ended a week to forget on a loss of 0.75% at 5192, and relatively lower turnover of TRY 98.7bn, due to the fright and apparent exodus of small investors from the BIST due to the extreme volatility, and rise in interest rates. The Banks shed a further 2.82%, due to the continuing strict regulations against the sector, in the name of de-dollarization, which boosted the TRY time deposit rates to the 30% mark. SASA, TUPRS and FROTO led the gains at the BIST30, whereas GUBRF was limit-down after its recent surge, and was followed by TKFEN and KOZAL shares.
• For the week, the BIST100 fell by 5.44%, with the Banks dragging down the benchmark by falling 11%, and the Conglomerates by 6.33%, whereas the Transportation stocks managed fare better than its peers, falling by a mere 1.15%. TUPRS, ASUZU, and SELEC were the best performers this week, whereas GSDHO, KARSN, and EUREN were the most sold. Please note that we had previously warned that the Baltic Dry Index, a key economic indicator showing sea-transportation was at its historically low level.
• The TRY was flat against the USD, and weakened slightly by 0.09% against the Euro, whereas both the 2yr and 10yr bond yields rose by 1.96% and 2.76%, respectively, thus causing for some investors to exit the volatility and park their cash into Savings Deposits.
• On the commodity front, Brent fell by 1.86%, after peaking at its resistance level of USD 89, and GOLD was relatively unmoved.
• Due to the increasing regulations by the CBRT against the Banks, the overhang led to the sector losing a further 3.5%, and the Conglomerates fell by 1.5%, whereas only the REITs and the Energy stocks managed to diverge positively from their peers.
• As of Friday’s close, the TRY is trading flat at 18.81 against the USD, but a tad weaker against the Euro at 20.45, and the DXY is trading calm at 101.90. The 5yr CDS rates will start the new week from the 553 level.
• On the commodity front, Brent is trading flat at USD 86, and ounce and gram GOLD are trading higher at USDD 1932 and TRY 1168, respectively. Gold is inching up, fuelled by rising tension in the middle-east.
• Due to low-risk appetite in the Asian markets, and negative trading at the U.S. futures, we expect a slightly down opening at home.
NEWS FLOW:
• Over the weekend, U.S., French and German Foreign Embassies issued a warning against travel to Turkey. This may create an overhang on Aviation and Tourism stocks.
• According to media reports, the CMB will take closer look at stocks that trade several sessions limit-up after their IPO, despite the direction of the benchmark.
• KOZAL: Disclosed that the cancellation of its Environmental Assessment Report for the capacity increase of its Cukuralan mining operations has been overturned, and that the mining operations will resume.
• VAKBN: Disclosed that it will increase its registered capital to TRY 25bn from TRY 10bn
• CANTE: Disclosed that it will increase its paid-in capital by 150% by bonus issue.
• ALARK: Disclosed that it will make new strategic investments in Agriculture and Food Industries.
AGENDA:
• On the local front, the Economic Confidence will kick-off the new week, followed by the Trade Balance figures, Foreign Tourist Arrivals, PMI, Weekly Foreigners’ Net Stock/Bond investments, most important local flow, the CPI (m/m: +4%; y/y 53.80% vs. Prev. 1.18%/64.27%)
• On the international front, the most important event will be the FOMC from the U.S., the consensus is for a 25bps rate hike, including the ECB, expected to be more hawkish than its U.S. counterpart (Est. +50bps), and the BOE will also disclose its policy rate.
• Other notable news flows from the U.S. will include the Conference Board Expectations, ADP, PMI, ISM, JOLTS, Weekly Jobless Claims, the NFP. Durable Goods Orders, and Employment Figures.


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.