TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

" The BIST managed to pare its previous day's losses, and added some on top, closing the day 2.10% higher, and accompanied with a decent turnover of TRY 130bn, despite the Banks diverging negatively on both profit-taking and KCHOL's sale of YKBNK shares. Stepping back and looking at the big picture, we pretty much saw reactionary gains at stocks that suffered sales the day before, such as the Autos, but with the exception of DOAS, due to increased cancellations of luxury cars on the back on stricter loan restrictions and the rising USD/TRY parity, and the Defence stocks also rose on the back of Erdogan's speech of targeting USD 6bn exports for 2023. YKBNK was the most sold after its discounted sale by parent company, and followed by ISCTR and GUBRF.
" The Fed increased the interest rates by 25bps, a move that was widely expected by the market, thus bring the borrowing rate to 5.25%-5.50%, its highest level in 22 years. Chairman Powell stated that the Central Bank is seeking proof that inflation is "durably down" and added that the policymakers will take a "meeting by meeting" approach regarding the rates, thus hinting that they have not decided on future rate hikes, which led investors to believe that the FOMC may skip hiking the rates in September. However, no rate cuts are seen in 2023, and 2024 is also a strong "maybe." The only real change in the statement was the word replacement from "modest" to "moderate" in describing the slight improvement in the economy. Ahead of the FOMC's next meeting on September 19-20, there will be the Jackson Hole on August 24-26, which will be the new guidance heading forth.
" After yesterday's speculation that the Fed may skip rate hikes in September, we are observing an upward movement in the commodities-Brent is higher at USD 83.30, and ounce and gram GOLD prices have risen to USD 1977 (almost a rise of $10) and TRY 1710, respectively, as of yesterday's session closing prices.
" At yesterday's meeting the Chinese and Turkish foreign ministers, the use of local currency exchange between businesses would be supported, as well as corporation in the nuclear energy, agriculture, civil aviation, and culture and tourism, as well as China's intent to import higher quality products from Turkey.
" Key points from yesterday's Economic Coordination Meeting were preparation in the unveiling of the new Mid-Term Program, as well as curbing inflation.
" Detailing the key points of the recent agreement between Turkey and the UAE, the Emirati Ambassador denied local speculations of the sale of various assets to the UAE.
" Today, we expect a positive opening for BIST.
AGENDA:
" On the local front, the weekly foreigners' net STOCK/BOND investment holding will be released, however, the most important event will be the CBRT Inflation Report meeting, to be attended by TFG as well, the first main encounter between the new CBRT Head and Economists. On the international front, the ECB will be announcing its policy rate, expected at an increase of 25bps, as well as the US Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, 2Q23 GDP growth rate, and Pending Home Sales.

COMPANY NEWS:
" AKBNK: Positive- Akbank posted a massive TRY20.3bn quarterly net profit for 2Q23 that is 18% above the consensus and 14% above our TRY17.8bn forecast that is at the higher end of the market. While we were expecting Akbank to post the best q-q and y-y profit evolution, the actual figure is even beyond that thanks to higher than anticipated trading gains that explains the whole divergence. The sector trading gains are inflated by exceptionally high FX bid-ask spreads as well as option backed profits. A major factor that lifted up Akbank's earnings beyond the peers was the expected increase of CPI assumption for linkers from 35% to 40%, which is applied to the whole first half. Each 1pp additional NIM increases the annual profit by TRY650mn for Akbank. Despite major support from CPI linked bonds, Akbank's headline NII is down 23% q-q due to plunging TRY core spread. As can be recalled Akbank was the only private bank in 1Q23 with a negative TRY core spread. The TRY loan-deposit spread has come down by 3.7pp (YKBNK's q-q change was 3.4pp) to -4.1%. Thanks to rationalization of loan pricing as well as a decline in TRY deposit costs, we are expecting a back-book spread recovery from August onwards.
" TOFAS: Positive - The company posted positive results for 2Q23 with net sales in line and EBITDA and net profit exceeding market expectations. Net sales came out at TRY23.4bn. EBITDA and net profit stood at TRY4.4bn and TRY4.9bn respectively. EBITDA was 19% above estimated while net profit exceeded consensus by 40%. EBITDA margin also came out 232bps higher than forecasted at 18.7%. Bottom line was supported by net financial income of TRY2bn and deferred tax income of TRY642mn.
" TAVHL: Slightly negative - 2Q23 net sales, EBITDA and net profit were lower than expectation at TRY6.9bn, TRY2.3bn and TRY887mn. Net sales and EBITDA were 6% lower than consensus while net profit was 22% lower than estimated. EBITDA however came in line with forecasts at 33.3%. Bottom line was negatively affected by a net loss of TRY919mn due to the effect of the earthquake tax.
" OTKAR: Neutral - 2Q23 net sales came out at TRY3.9bn, exceeding market expectation by 11%. While EBITDA and net profit for the quarter stood in line with forecasted at TRY435mn and TRY281mn. EBITDA margin was 11.3% vs consensus of 12.2%.
" EKGYO: Istanbul Başakşehir Kayabaşı 10th Stage land sale contract was signed on the basis of the Total Revenue from the Sale in return for the land sale with the Contractor for TRY3.8 bn.
" BFREN: It has been announced that the company's factory will partially continue its activities between 31 July and 28 August due to annual leaves.


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
                           ***
                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.