TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

The harsh selloffs continued yesterday as well, as was widely expected, to weak global markets as well as climbing interest rates both on TRY time deposits and FX protected deposits, ending the day 2.20% lower at 4784, with a turnover of TRY 47.7bn, with the Banks falling less than the benchmark, and the Mining stocks continuing to face harsh selloffs. Deutsche Bank and Barclays will disclose their earnings today as a guide to the state of the Banking sector.
• BIMAS-SAHOL-GARAN and ENKAI were the only stocks in the BIST30 that closed on a positive note, whereas TAVHL, KRDMD and KOZAA were the most sold.
• Today, we may see a slightly positive opening after yesterday’s harsh selloffs, and the macro releases from the US side will most probably dictate the direction of the trading.
• As of yesterday’s close, the TRY is trading at 19.42 against the USD, but slightly weaker against the Euro at 21.47, and both the 2yr and 10yr bond yields rose by 24bps and 17bps to 14.36% and 12.29%, respectively.
• On the commodity front, Brent has dropped sharply on global recessionary concerns to USD 77.93, but both ounce and gram GOLD prices have edged higher to USD 1249 and TRY 2000 respectively.
• Samsung disclosed that its profits plunged 95% on weak memory chip demand, its biggest business coincidentally.
• Argentina disclosed that it will start to pay for Chinese imports in yuan rather than USD, as a measure to relieve the country’s dwindling USD reserves.
1Q23 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
• AKBNK NEUTRAL: In line with consensus mean AKBNK posted TRY10.7bn net profit in its 1Q23 financials, presenting a -51% q-q slump due to negative TRY core spread, less CPI linker support and rising opex. The widening FX bid-ask spreads alluded to a stronger trading line of TRY5.6bn, up by 54% q-q. The bank's ROE regressed significantly to 28% from the 62% peak in 4Q, aligning with the 30% guidance
• ASELS POSITIVE: ASELS posted TRY2267mn net profit, TRY1907mn EBITDA and TRY8297mn sales in its 1Q23 financials. The net profit is 31% above the consensus mean, net sales is 13% above the consensus mean AND EBITDA is 8% above the consensus mean EBITDA Margin was 23% vs 24% expected. We deem the results positive due to better than expected results.
• GARAN POSITIVE: Garanti's net profit of TRY15.7bn is 20% above the expectation of TRY13.1bn. Among 16 institutions, TFG Istanbul had the highest estimate of TRY13.7bn. Return on equity was strong at 39% in the first quarter compared to Akbank's 28%. Stronger than expected earnings from subsidiaries and trading profits explain the deviation compared to expectations. We expect Garanti Bank shares to react positively to these results.
• TTRAK POSITIVE: TTRAK posted TRY1398mn net profit, TRY1815mn EBITDA and TRY9524mn sales in its 1Q23 financials. The net profit is 21% above the consensus mean, net sales is 5% above the consensus mean, EBITDA is 20% above the consensus mean due to higher than expected EBITDA Margin (Consensus mean: 16% realized 19%). The Company's net cash position increased from TL947mn in 4Q22 to TL1.3bn as of 1Q23The company revised upwards its 2023 guidance from 2022. As such, it expected the Turkey domestic total sales to be 59k-65k, from the previous 57k-63k; domestic sales to be 28k-32k from 27k-31k, while exports are expected to remain unchanged at 17,250-19,250. The company also left its CAPEX unchanged at TRY 1-1.3bn.
NEWS FLOW:
• THYAO/EKGYO: Disclosed that the 50-50% 3.6mn sqm land in Arnavutkoy/Istanbul has been approved for development. 14,000 homes will be developed by EKGYO, of which 3000 will be sold to THYAO and its subsidiaries.
• ASTOR: Disclosed that its USD 2.7mn was the best bid in Baskent Electric Distribution’s electricity transformation procurement tender.
• ASUZU: Disclosed that it has signed an agreement in Romania to supply 26 electric-powered buses.
• GESAN: Disclosed that it has signed a USD 21.1mn turnkey agreement with AKSEN’s subsidiary Aksa Goynuk Termik
• OZKGY: Disclosed that it has purchased Club Med in Kemer/Antalya for TRY 668mn. The General Assembly also approved it 100% capital increase to TRY 1.4bn from TRY 728mn.
• PEGYO: Disclosed that it has signed a TRY 44.8mn renovation agreement for a Mall.
• GRSEL: With the tender opened by Eskişehir Metropolitan Municipality, it was announced that 30 pieces of 26 S series plates were rented for 10 years.
AGENDA:
• On the local front, the most compelling macro release will be the MPC policy rate decision, expected to remain unchanged at 8.50%, followed by the Foreigners’’ Net STOCK/BOND Investments, whereas the US will be disclosing the 1Q23 GDP figures, the Core PCE, and the Weekly Jobless Claims.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.