TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST continued its hot streak this week, adding another 1.54% gains under its belt to close at 4854, and turnover of TRY 121.2bn, with the Banks leading the gains ahead of today’s MPC meeting, where the consensus has a 150bps rate cut pencilled in.
• PGSUS topped the BIST30 gains, closing over 6% after the parent company’s sell-order was completed, and was followed by ISCTR and TOASO, whereas BIMAS, KOZAL and EKGYO were the most sold.
• Today, we expect a positive opening parallel to the positive mood in the global markets on the back of the dovish FOMC minutes, then-after, the MPC rate decision will be the key determinant in the direction of trading.
• As of session close yesterday, the TRY is trading flat at 18.61, and the DXY has fallen sharply to 105.70 after the disclosure of the Minutes. The 2yr and 10yr yields fell yesterday by 25bps and 8bps respectively to 11.11% and 10.80%, respectively. The CDS rates also fell by a further 7pts yesterday to 554. We expect the continuing strengthening in the euro to be especially positive onto companies that export to Europe, such as ARCLK.
• On the commodity front, Brent is trading below the USD 85 ticker at USD 84.75, and both ounce and gram GOLD prices have risen to USD 1754 and TRY 1050, respectively.
• The EU is considering to impose a price cap of USD 65-USD 70 on Russian oil, thus in unison with the G7 members.
• According to the BOE chief economist, Huw Pill, The Bank of England will need to raise interest rates further to tackle inflationary pressures that are becoming increasingly domestic.
• The US DOE disclosed that U.S. crude stockpiles fell while gasoline and distillate inventories both rose substantially last week as refiners ramped up production, alleviating a bit of concern about market tightness.
• The FOMC minutes confirmed the earlier messages that the interest-rate increases are set to cut pace, while rates could remain high for longer. Markets welcomed the outcome as stocks appreciated, US bond yields slipped down and DXY plunged. Apparently the FED has been on the right track to tame the inflation. Going forward they want the economy to digest the hikes so far. In-all we expect the risk on mood to prevail, supporting equities and commodities.
NEWS FLOW:
• AUTOMOTIVE: The SCT range for the sector has been increased as widely expected, effective as of Dec. 1st 2022. We deem this news most positively onto TOASO shares, though this base-limit adjustment may have already been priced in.
o Accordingly, for conventional cars with less than 1,600 cubic centimeters engine capacity, upper limit where 45% SCT is applied is raised to 184K liras from 120K lira. Where 50% SCT is applied, limit raised to 184K-220K lira from 120K-150K. Where 60% SCT is applied, new limit set at 220K-250K liras vs 150K-175K liras. Where 70% SCT is applied, new limit set at 250K-280K liras vs 175K-200K liras.
o For hybrid cars whose electrical engines are above 50kW but with an engine capacity below 1,800 cubic centimeters, Max. tax base limit where 45% SCT is applied is raised to 228K liras from 130K.
o Where 50% SCT is applied, limit raised to 228K-350K liras from 130K-210K
• WHITEGOODS: According to the White Goods Manufacturers’ Association of Turkey, sales in October rose by 9% y/y, but fell by 4% 9m y/y. We may see ARCLK shares reflect positively onto shares today.
AGENDA:
• On the local front, the MPC meeting, with consensus hinting at a 150bps rate cut in the policy rate to 9% will top the data flow, as well as the Real Sector Confidence, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Weekly Foreigners’ Net STOCK/BOND investments, whereas the ECB meeting minutes will be released, and the German IFO figures. Please note that our US colleagues will be celebrating Thanksgiving and watching American Football, and perhaps the World Cup as well, and thus will be closed today, and will open until the afternoon on Friday.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.