TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST faced another similar trading session yesterday akin to the previous day and that being opening on a positive note, but then getting annihilated in the second half. This volatility is becoming alarmingly too common. As such, parallel to the positive closing in the US markets, and the positive ripple effect we are seeing in the Asian markets, we expect a positive opening at the BIST as well but may observe increased volatility after the MPC meeting.
• Accordingly, the BIST100 fell by 2.18% to 7601, after peaking yesterday at 7832, and on a hefty turnover of TRY 174bn, with the Banks managing to pare their intraday losses and closing positively, whereas the Transportation stocks, perhaps due to media reports of surging global Covid cases, once again lagged their peers, and were the most sold stocks.
• ISCTR, PETKM and EKGYO were yesterday’s best performing blue-chips, whereas TUPRS continued to face profit-taking, and closed nearly 7% at TRY 129.50 after peaking this week at TRY 149.50 and was joined by THYAO and PGSUS. On the broader picture, the Energy stocks, REITS and Agriculture stocks performed well.
• Despite a shaky opening due to both the dismal MBA mortgage applications by 4.2% vs last month’s fall of 0.2%, as well as the falling PMI figures, the US stocks closed higher thanks to the technology stocks, especially thanks to expectations of a strong performance from A1 chip maker Nvidia, which did not disappoint expectations, and reported a surged of 171% in data center revenue, which includes the A100 and H100 AI chips that are needed to build and run artificial intelligence applications like ChatGPT. The share closed 6% higher yesterday, while also issuing optimistic guidance for the current period. Earnings beat expectations by over 30%.
• The TRY is currently trading slightly weaker against the USD at 27.22, and at 29.60 against the Euro, while the DXY is at 103.34. On the Bonds’ side, whereas the 2yr rates rose by 130 bps to 18.76%, the 10yr rates were unchanged at 18.95%
• Now shifting our focus to the commodity side, Brent is trading slightly higher this morning at USD 82.85, after being pressured by both worries of over-supply as Iran is increasing its production levels, despite a slowdown in economic activity, which was clearly visible yesterday on the European and US PMI figures. Ounce and gram GOLD prices are trading higher at USD 1921, and TRY 1682, respectively, as the slowdown in the global economy may deter the Central Banks from raising interest rates, which is consequently beneficial for the stock markets as well.
• Please note that despite the Jackson Hole meeting kicking-off today at Wyoming, the Federal Reserve chairman is expected to speak on Friday, but expectations are for him to keep in-line with his previous statements, that being that rate hike decisions will be dependent predominantly on core CPI and NFP figures.
• Yesterday, global media reported that the leader of Wagner paramilitary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin was listed as a passenger on the plane that crashed with no survivors.
AGENDA:
• The CBRT will disclosing its policy rate today, with expectations of the rate increasing to 20% from the current 17.5% level. On the back of the latest 3 appointments to the MPC, we envisage likes of a higher rate hike. Despite that, a down move in USDTRY is unlikely in our view, as the CBRT is likely to sterilise the inflows to TRY via strengthening its FX reserves should there be over 250bp rate hike. Although a higher-than-expected rate hike would be fundamentally downbeat for the banks, we expect such a bold move to trigger a banks rally with the expectations of foreign inflows into the proxy sector.
• The CBRT will be posting weekly banking data as well as the change in non-resident STOCK/BOND holdings.
• On the international front Jackson Hole meeting, the US July Durable Goods Orders and Jobless Claims will be followed.
CORPORATE NEWS:
• BOBET: Disclosed that it has signed a TRY 350mn agreement in Istanbul
• GRSEL: Margin trading and short-selling has been implemented on the stock until Sept.22
• GESAN: Disclosed that it signed a €2.4mn agreement with regards to the expansion of the new Antalya Airport Terminal
• MPARK: Disclosed that it will run the operations of Duna Medical Center in Hungary.
• ORGE: Disclosed that within the scope of increasing its revenues in renewable energy, the company has established an E-Mobility Department, and has decided to start chargeable battery production for electrical automobiles.


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.