TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST suffered from panic sell-offs on Friday amid false rumours than the Head of the Economy Mr. Mehmet Simsek’s apparent resignation was overturned, coupled with speculations of a tightening regulatory measures against the Banks,-the latter speculation being realized over the weekend, thus causing for the BIST100 to end the week on a loss of 2.61%, fuelled by the 4.61% losses in the Banks, and 4.17% drop in the Transportation stocks.
• On the BIST30 side, there were only two stocks that managed to close above water, TUPRS rose by 3.25% and GUBRF by a mere 0.13%, whereas BIMAS, GARAN and KRDMD were the most sold-off blue chip stocks.
• For the week, the BIST lost on average 2.61%, due to the near 4% losses in the Banks, on the back of both Friday’s speculations of possible upcoming regulations against the sector, and earlier media reports of a possible tax on profits, whereas the Transportation stocks were downed by 4.63%, however, the REITs and the Energy stocks managed to diverge positively from their peers. The TRY depreciated by 0.86% against the USD but managed to gain value against the Euro by 0.61%. The commodities fell after the hawkish disclosure of the FOMC Minutes calling for continue rate hikes to halt inflation, with Brent falling by a little over 2%, and ounce GOLD by 1.26%, whereas gram GOLD fell by a little less than a quarter due to the rise in the USD/TRY parity.
• Today, we expect a negative opening at the BIS, to be pressured by the Banks, may pare their losses later in the day following an initial negative opening.
• The TRY is trading 0.2% weaker against the USD 27.17, and weaker against the Euro at 29.57, as of print, while the DXY while the DXY is flat at 103.37. The 2yr and 10yr Bond yields will be opening from 18.07% and 19.12%, after the 2yr rates rose by 15bps, but the 10yr bps went the opposite direction by 16bps.
• On the commodity front, Brent is trading higher this morning, hovering around the USD 85 level, USD, and whereas ounce GOLD prices are trading flat at USD 1890, gram GOLD has risen to TRY 1651, due to the rise in the USD/TRY parity.
• The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has made a regulation to increase Turkish lira (TL) deposits and decrease the Currency Protected Deposits (KKM), supporting the Conversion of Turkish Lira Deposit and Participation Accounts, and Conversion from Gold Accounts to Turkish Lira Deposit and Participation Accounts. As such, the RR on FX holdings for Banks has been increased to 29% for deposits up to 1 month maturity, 25% for 3-6 and up to 1 year maturity, and 19% for holdings greater than 1 year. More importantly, in an attempt to gradually terminate the FX-protected lira program, realized maturities will be converted to standard TRY Savings Deposits.
• On Friday, the CBRT Expectations Survey increased the year-end inflation rate to 59.46% from 43.82% and expects the TRY to weaken to 29.82 from 28.46 against the USD.
AGENDA:
• On the local front, the Consumer Confidence figures, the MPC meeting, with estimates forecasting a 200-250bps rate hike, the Foreigners’ Weekly Net STOCK/BOND Holdings, Real Sector Confidence numbers, the Bloomberg Aug. Turkey Economic Survey, and Foreign Tourist Arrivals-a data gaining importance amid reports Turkey is losing is tourism sector to Egypt, will be the key local headlines.
• On the international front, the US Existing Home Sales numbers, PMI, New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, and the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will be released, whereas the Eurozone will be tracking the PMI, and Germany will disclose its PPI, GDP and IFO results. Please note that the Jackson Hole Meeting will also kick-off on Aug.24, with Jerome Powell’s speech.
2Q23 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
• ALARK: POSITIVE: The company posted nett profit of TRY3.1bn which was 93% higher than expected net profit for 2Q23.
• VESTL: POSITIVE: The company posted EBITDA of TRY3.4bn (up 42% yoy and 196% qoq). EBITDA exceeded expectation by 23% while net sales came out in line with estimated at TRY20.5bn. EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 16.7% vs 14.2% consensus. VESTL however posted a net loss of TRY616mn which was much higher than forecasted TRY316mn net loss.
CORPORATE NEWS:
• REITS: According to media reports, in order to revive home sales, a campaign is being drawn-up by the CBRT and BRSA to offer low housing credits to consumers. We deem this development positive on EKGYO-TRGYO and SNGYO.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.