TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST closed yesterday a percent higher at 3880, and turnover of TRY 84.7bn, despite a brief encounter in the red-zone, thanks to the buoyant buying appetite in the Banks, surging by over 5%, amid robust 3q22 earnings expectations-as we had warned our investors the day before. However, the Industrials are still continuing to lag behind their peers, rising by just 0.27% yesterday, and the Mining stocks diverged negatively.
• The State and Private Banks led the gains at the BIST, whereas GUBRF, ASELS and KOZAL found themselves at the bottom of the BIST30 listing.
• On a bigger picture, the renewable energy stocks, also continued to see investor interest, especially thanks to new project disclosures.
• Today, we expect a flat opening, hampered by the negative mood in the global markets due to rising interest rates.
• The TRY is trading flat as a straight-edge at 18.59, and the DXY is flat at 112. 85. The 2yr yields fell by 52bps to 15.18%, whereas the 10yr yields rose slightly by 3bps after yesterday’s sharp fall. The CDS rates will open the new day from the 737 level, after a flat closing.
• On the commodity front, Brent has risen to USD 91.67, and both ounce and gram GOLD prices have risen slightly to USD 1631 and TRY 975, respectively.
• Please note that we have released our 3Q22 BANKS PREVIEW. Among private banks, we expect Garanti to diverge positively from the private peers on a quarterly basis thanks to up to 200bp q-q TRY spread improvement, predominantly on the back of sliding funding costs and surging inflation base of CPI linkers from 45% in 2Q to 75% in 3Q.
3q22 FINANCIAL RESULTS
• ASELS: Don’t let the Net Income Fool You-3Q22 TRY 1.96bn vs Est: TRY 1.48bn vs TRY 602mn y/y. The net debt position increased dramatically, which shows lack of free cash flow generation.
NEWS FLOW:
• According to the Fed Beige Book, the Fed said that the US economy grew “modestly” through early October but performances were mixed in different parts of the country, with activity slowing in a couple of places. “National economic activity expanded modestly on net since the previous report; however, conditions varied across industries and Districts,” adding that “Outlooks grew more pessimistic amidst growing concerns about weakening demand.”
• The UK Treasury is set to transfer more than £11 billion ($12.4 billion) to the Bank of England this fiscal year to cover projected losses in its bond-buying program.
• Yesterday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard stated he expects the central bank to end its ‘’front-loading” of aggressive interest-rate hikes by early next year and shift to keeping policy sufficiently restrictive with small adjustments as inflation cools.
• Treasury and Finance Minister, Nebati, signalled a revision to the Private Pension System.
• Stock market investors rose by 17% y/y to a record level 2.752million investors as of 18 Oct. 2022, and increase of 5% m/m.
• SMRTG: Disclosed that it will increase its capital by 100% via bonus issue.
AGENDA:
• The main macro news flow on the local front will be MPC Meeting, with an expectation of the policy rate to be cut by a further 100bps to 11%, while the year-end forecast stands at 9%, as well as the Foreigners’ Weekly Bond/Stock Investments, and on the international front, the US Jobless Claims, and Existing Home Sales will be disclosed.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.