TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST closed Friday on a gain of 0.36%, despite the yo-yo trading at 5026.83, but with a considerably low turnover of TRY 63.7bn, as some investors have clearly shied away from the volatility of the BIST to park their cash in Savings’ account, on the back of rising interest rate.
• The Industrial, particularly the steel stocks, and the Mining stocks, lifted the BIST higher, whereas the Banks and Conglomerates diverged negatively from their peers.
• KRDMD, VAKBN and KOZAL led the gains at the BIST30, whereas TTKOM, TCELL and ARCLK were the most sold. For the week, the BIST100 returned a gain of 11.57%, led by the Industrials and the Banks, whereas the Energy and REITs performed subpar. The CEMENT and steel STOCKS led the gains at the BIST100 for week, with OYAKC, BUCIM, and CIMSA being the most bought, whereas the most sold BIST100 stocks for the week were FENER, KZBGY, and MAVI.
• The TRY depreciated by 0.15% against the greenback, and 0.30% against the Euro, and the 5yr CDS rates ended the week at 569.
• Today, we expect a positive opening at the BIST, parallel to the global markets, ahead of this week’s FOMC minutes.
• As of Friday’s close, the TRY is trading flat at 18.87 against the USD, and 20.16 against the Euro, whereas the DXY has risen slightly to 103.95. The 2yr yields fell by 10bps on Friday to 11.08%, and the 10yr rates fell by 28bps to 10.67%.
• On the commodity front, Brent is trading higher this morning at USD 83.40, and both ounce and gram GOLD are stable at USD 1842 and TRY 1118.
• Over the weekend, U.S. Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken met with his Chinse counterpart to address mounting tensions with China, to discuss China’s high-altitude surveillance balloon and the nation’s stance on sending “lethal aid” to Russia.
• China left the loan prime rates unchanged this morning.
• Please note that the U.S. markets will be closed today.
4Q22 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
• HALKB: Neutral: Halkb's 4Q22 financial report unveiled a net profit of TRY5.8bn, which perfectly matched both the market consensus and TFG Istanbul's estimation of TRY5.6bn. The company's impressive bottom line registered a staggering surge of 36% q-q and an astounding 353% y-y. CPI linkers' share within the portfolio raised to 40% and their valuation rate revised up to 64%, culminating in a hefty boost of TRY17.4bn in the bottom line. Additionally, net fees demonstrated a moderate increase of 13% to TRY2.7bn, failing to match up with the 17.5% TRY loan growth. Meanwhile, Opex observed a slight uptick of 14.3% compared to the colossal 47% expansion of VAKBN. Halkbank completed 2022 with 22.1% ROE which is the lowest among the Turkish banks.
• TKNSA: Negative: TKNSA posted TRY193mn net profit, TRY223mn Adjusted EBITDA and TRY6652mn sales in its 4Q22 financials. The net profit is 34% above our expectation, net sales is 8% above our expectation due to strong demand, whereas Adjusted EBITDA is 11% below our expectation mainly due to lower than expected Adjusted EBITDA Margin (Our expectation %4.1, realized %3.4). Even though there is strong top line growth, we deem the results negative due to weak EBITDA results.
• AKCNS - Akcansa Cimento: Negative: The company posted net profit of TRY361mn vs forecasted profit of TRY358mn for 4Q22, 0.9% above expectation. Net Sales for quarter were 2.6% higher than expectation at TRY3029mn. However EBITDA for 4Q22 was 0.5% below anticipated EBITDA at TRY408mn and EBITDA margin was also 40bps lower than expected at 13.5%.
• VESBE: Negative: VESBE posted TRY15mn net loss, TRY309mn EBITDA and TRY10191mn sales in its 4Q22 financials. The net profit was expected as 179 TRYmn but company posted net loss of 15 TRY mn, net sales is in line with consensus mean, whereas EBITDA is 55% below consensus mean mainly due to lower than expected EBITDA Margin (Consensus mean %6.6, realized %3.0). Even though top line is in line with expectation results are negative due to weak EBITDA results and net loss.
NEWS FLOW:
• HALKB: Disclosed that it will raise its capital ceiling to TRY 30bn from TRY 10bn.
• ISDMR: Disclosed that it sees no significant impact on the financials from the earthquake, and that the stock will resume trading today.
• ASTOR: Disclosed that it has signed 3 deals wort USD 8.5mn in total.
• ASELS: Disclosed that it has revised the total order size for 2 Roketsan deals to USD 29.1mn and USD 187mn, respectively.
• GESAN: Disclosed that it has signed 2 turnkey projects in N. Macedonia for €59.6mn
• TOASO: Disclosed that it will distribute gross TRY 6/share.
AGENDA:
• This week, the most compelling macro flow will be the MPC meeting on Thursday, where the consensus is for a 100bps rate cut in the policy rate to 8%, as well as the Consumer Confidence, Capacity Utilization Rate, Real Sector Confidence, Foreigners’’ Weekly Stock/Bond Investments, Foreign Tourist Arrivals, and the Bloomberg Feb. Turkey Economic Survey.
• Meanwhile, the U.S. will be following the PMI, Existing Home Sales, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Annualized q/q GDP, Core PCE, Jobless Claims, Personal Income, PCE Core Deflator, and the University of Michigan Expectations.
Elsewhere, the Eurozone will be following the Consumer Confidence Level, PMI, Trade, and Inflation, Germany will disclose its IFO Index and GDP Growth Rate, and Japan will also release its CPI figures
 
 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
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