TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

EVEN BANKS COULD NOT LIFT BIST HIGHER
" The BIST closed yesterday on a loss of 0.80% at 5019, despite a promising start to the day, with a low turnover of TRY 49.2bn, diverging negatively from the global markets, as we near the finish line to the May 14th elections. The Banks managed to diverge positively from their peers, whereas the Mining stocks faced heavy sell-offs after their recent surge, alongside the Industrials and the REITs, as we warned in our morning report yesterday.
" All top 3 spots at the BIST30 were taken by the private banks, headed by GARAN, and followed by YKBNK and AKBNK, followed by THYAO, whereas KOZAA, ALARK and KOZAL were the most sold.
" Today, we expect a flat opening at the BIST.
" As of yesterday's close, the TRY is trading flat at 19.41 against the USD, but a tad stronger against the Euro at 21.28 against the Euro, and on the Bonds' side, the 2yr rates fell by 83bps whereas the 10yr rates were flat at 13.90% and 12.17%, respectively.
" On the commodity front, Brent is trading lower this morning at USD 84.29, and ounce and gram GOLD are flat at USD 2003 and TRY 1250, respectively.
" According to the World Steel Organization, global demand for steel is expected to rise by 2.3% to 1,822 bn tons, and 7.4% increase for Turkey, on the back of the 15% growth in the Construction sector due to both the base effect and the February earthquake. Upbeat for KRDMD and EREGL.
" St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, played down recession talks, and stated that he favors more rate hikes. "Wall Street's very engaged in the idea there's going to be a recession in six months or something, but that isn't really the way you would read an expansion like this."
" The German ZEW survey showed that investor sentiment unexpectedly fell in April as the financial markets see more restrictive credit conditions in the coming months.
" The EU agreed to invest more than €43bn in public and private investments in the semiconductor sector production among the member states.
" Turkey Housing Prices increased by 141.48% y/y in February. We expect the real estate price growth to slow down going forward due to likely increase in interest rates as well as rent charge limitations.
" Please note that the 1Q23 Financial Season is expected to kick-off tonight with ARCLK. TRY3.7bn EBITDA and TRY1.0bn net profit expected.
" Also, we have released our Turkish Banking Sector 1Q23 Preview, which you can find at https://www.tfgistanbul.com/userfiles/files/1Q23%20TR%20BANKS%20PREVIEW%20-%20TFG%20ISTANBUL%20-%20190423.pdf
o We expect Garanti Bank to have a relatively limited qoq profit erosion and highest yoy profit growth among the private banks as it was a latecomer to the deposit price competition. We expect Akbank to face the steepest qoq profit contraction as the TRY loan-deposit spread of the bank is expected to come down by 440bp qoq into the red, while that of Garanti will come down by 290bp to a still positive 4% in our view.
NEWS FLOW:
" ALFAS: Disclosed that it will increase its registered capital to TRY 4bn from TRY 200mn.
" CVKMD: Disclosed that it has signed a TRY 100mn deal to purchase an ore field.
" EUPWR: Shares will start trading at the BIST on Thursday, April 20th.
" ENKAI: Disclosed that its 100 subsidiary in Germany had signed an LNG agreement in Hamburg/Germany worth €1bn-(as this news was released during the day-we feel it has been priced in).
" GESAN: Disclosed that it has signed a USD 1.1mn agreement in Karaman/Turkey.
" GLYHO: Disclosed that cruise ships in March rose by 24% y/y, and passenger count rose by 127% y/y.
AGENDA:
" On the local front, the Expected 12 mth Inflation and Consumer Confidence levels will be released, whereas on the international side, The Eurozone and UK Inflation figures, and the US Fed Beige Book will be released.



 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.