TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

" After a week suspension, due to the catastrophic earthquake that left over 35k dead, the BIST will open today from the 4505 level, after closing last week's session on a loss of 8.62%.
" Today, on the back of the numerous regulations in favour of investors, primary one being increasing the minimum equity portion of state contributed pension funds from 10% to 30% that will bring about TRY8bn of flow into equities, coupled with companies announcing share buyback programs, we expect a strong opening at the BIST.
" The TRY is trading a tad weaker against the USD at 18.85, after having had tested its historic peak at 19.30, whereas the DXY is flat at 103.4. The 2yr TRY rates are unchanged at 11%, whereas the 10yr yields rose by 21bps to 11.57%. We expect further increases in interest rates as pension funds are set to switch out of fixed income into equities due to the recent regulation change.
" On the commodity front, Brent has fallen from yesterday' level of USD 85.50 to trading around a USD less at USD 84.58, and both ounce and gram GOLD prices are trading lower at USD 1846 and TRY 1119, respectively.
" The U.S. inflation rose in January by 0.5% following a 0.1% increase in December, and by 6.4% y/y, thus, higher than expected.
" The Treasury and Finance Ministry stated that they halted the import of GOLD-we feel that this will also lead to an increase in USDTRY.
" After yesterday's Cabinet Meeting, President Erdogan announced that the construction of 30k new homes would start in March23. Please recall yesterday, that we deem this positive for CEMENT, as well as EKGYO, and KRDMD. Once the homes are built, White-good companies, such as ARCLK and VESTL, as well FURNITURE companies, such as YATAS, and technology retailers, such as TKNSA, would be positively affected.
" According to Bloomberg, the Turkey Sovereign Wealth Fund (TVF), will support equities with a new, internal mechanism established to contain the market fallout from Feb. 6 earthquakes. The so-called price stability fund will receive capital from state lenders and use the cash to buy stocks at times of volatility. We deem this positive for stocks held by the TVF, such as: HALKB-VAKBN-TURSG-THYAO-TCELL-TTKOM and KRDMD.
" President Erdogan stated yesterday that TRY 50bn had been allocated from the Banks' 2022 profits for the earthquake. This may lead the Banks to underperform their peers.
4Q22 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
" VAKBN: Disclosed a TRY8.4bn net profit despite heavy provisions: Posted TRY8.4bn net profit in its 4Q22 financials, which is 11% above the consensus as well as TFG Istanbul's expectation of TRY7.6bn. The difference stemmed from NII of TRY34.3bn (TFG: TRY32bn) with 119% increase q-q while other lines are essentially parallel to our expectations. Vakif's solid 4Q bottom-line indicates an increase of 321% y-y and 50% q-q despite heavy provisioning expenses. With the contribution of the final quarter's TRY9.5bn, the bank added a total of TRY17.2bn free provisions in 2022, which is a handsome PL buffer for 2023. 2022 ROE could have been 52%, rather than 30% actual figure when adjusted for those discretionary reserves. Opex went up by 47% as the management preferred frontloading some HR expenses to be paid in 2023 to the exceptionally solid 4Q22. Fees appreciated by 17% q-q, lagging the TRY loan growth by 7pp. Please see our report for further information.
" TAVHL: NEGATIVE: Disappointing margins however better than expected bottom line. Tav Havalimanlari posted net profit of TRY30mn vs expectation of net loss of TRY100mn. Net sales for 4Q22 stood at TRY5774mn, 14.5% higher than forecasted consensus mean. However EBITDA for 4Q22 was 2.1% lower than market anticipation at TRY1036mn and EBITDA margin was also 3.1pp lower than expected at 18%. For 2023, TAV is guiding for revenue of EUR1230-1290mn, int'l pax of 52-59mn, capex of EUR220-260mn, EBITDA of EUR330-380mn and net debt/EBITDA of 5.0-6.0x. New 2025 guidance includes 2022-2025 revenue CAGR of 10-14% and EBITDA of 12-18%. Net debt/EBITDA is planned to recede to 2.5-3.0x.
" AGESA NEGATIVE: Posted a net profit of TRY177.2mn 21.6% lower than expectations in 4Q22. The company's net profit showed a q/q decrease of -11.3%, reflecting a potential slowdown while the year-on-year net profit increased by 68%.
NEWS FLOW:
" The CMB disclosed yesterday that gross settlement and margin trading against all companies had been lifted, and that withholding tax rate on the share buyback program was reduced to 0% from the current 15% level.
" Meanwhile, the BRSA disclosed that Banks could also participate in share buybacks until January 1st, 2024.
" TUPRS: Disclosed that it will increase its paid-in capital by 600% via a bonus issue.
" OTKAR: Disclosed that it will increase its paid-in capital by 400% via bonus issue.
" Major companies that announced share buyback programs were: THYAO-VAKBN (revised)-ISMEN-ISCTR-HALKB-SKBNK-KNFRT-
AGENDA:
" There are no major local macro releases expected today, whereas on the U.S front, Retail Sales, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization, and Industrial Production, as well as ECB President, Christine Lagarde's speech will be followed.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.