TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST fell victim to profit-taking in the second half of Friday, closing the day on a loss of 0.26% at 4456, with a turnover of TRY 101.7bn, however, rallying by 5.66% for the week, thanks to the lower than expected US CPI readings, suggesting that the Fed might be less aggressive in its rate hikes going forth. Thus, the front-loading seems to have worked.
• The Banks and REITS trailed behind the benchmark considerably, rising by a mere 2.96% and 2.12%, with the Industrials and Conglomerates faring better, 4.65% and 4.49%, but it was once again the Energy and Aviation stocks that gave the gauge the necessary energy for the elevation, soaring 9.80% and 7.64%, respectively. On a stock basis-SMRTG, KONTR and HEKTS were this week’s most bought BIST100 stocks, whereas SNGYO, AYDEM and NUGYO were the most sold.
• The TRY strengthened slightly against the USD, but the real story was the rise in GOLD prices due to speculations of less aggressive rate hikes from the major central banks, with ounce and gram GOLD prices rising by over 5% each. On the commodity front, Brent fell by 3% for the week, but the plunge in the diesel differential from US$83 to US$39 in a month, is negative for TUPRS shares, thus prompting us to close our upbeat trading call on the name.
• Today, we expect a negative opening at the BIST, due especially to the deadly blast in Istanbul, with the Aviation and Tourism stocks to be the most negatively affected stocks, but we may later see reactionary buybacks.
• Currently, the TRY is trading weaker against the USD at 18.56, and both the 2yr and 10yr yields will start the new week from the 14.03% and 12.07%, after having fell by 40bps and 35bps, respectively. The CDS rates will start from the 557 level, falling from last week’s reading of 623.
• On the commodity front, Brent has fallen to USD 94.65, and both ounce and gram GOLD prices are trading are flat at USD 1760, and TRY 1051, respectively.
• Halkbank posted TRY4.3bn net profit in its 3Q23 financials surpassing the consensus mean by 5.9% and in-line with our TRY4.39bn expectation. Quarterly annualized headline ROE stands at 29%. Neutral for the stock in our view.

AGENDA:
• On the local front, the Central Gov’t Budget Balance will kick-off the macro news flow, followed by the Home Sales Figures, Home Price Index, Weekly Foreigners’ Net Stock/Bond Investments, and the 12 month Expected Inflation Survey, which was prev. at 37.34%. On the international front, the US PPI, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Capacity Utilization, Housing and Building starts will be monitored. As for the Eurozone, the most compelling news flow will be the IP, GDP growth rate and PPI, and China will also release its Industrial Production and Retail Sales this week. Please note that the G20 Meeting will also take place in Indonesia on November 15-16.
 
 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
                           ***
                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.