TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST100 closed yesterday on a slight loss of 0.13% to 5554, and turnover of TRY 84.3bn, as investors became wary that the lack of much anticipated person to head the Central Bank still was not disclosed, thus bringing forth the dreaded question “Will the CBRT cave-in to populist movements and refrain from making the necessary rate hikes to curb inflation and win the hearts of the foreign investors.
• Yesterday, TOASO, KRDMD and YKBNK led the gains among the BIST30 stocks, as opposed to GUBRF, ODAS and TCELL.
• Today, we expect a positive opening at the BIST, as the appointment of the much speculated and anticipated new CB Governor is set to ease the uncertainty in the markets, as the investors also expect her policies to be in-line with the Finance and Treasury Minister, Mehmet Simsek. Former Governor, Sahap Kavcioglu will be the new BRSA head.
• Coincidentally, Mehmet Simsek is expected to hold a meeting a meeting next week with local bank executives.
• As of yesterday’s close, the TRY is trading weaker ag 23.43 and 25.28 against the USD and the Euro, respectively, whereas the DXY is trading flat at 103.42.
• On the Bonds’ side, the 2yr rates closed yesterday 24bps lower to 15.49% whereas the 10yr yields rose by 47bps to 14.85%.
• The Commodities are trading calm this morning, Brent is currently trading at USD 75.44, and ounce and gram GOLD are at USD 1964 and TRY 1481, respectively.
• Morgan Stanley stated that they expect the policy rate to be increased to 20% in June from the current 8.5%, and then to 25% in August, pencilling in the USD/TRY parity at 28 for YE23.
• The Eurozone fell into a technical recession according to the 1Q23 figures, as the GDP contracted by 0.1%, the second consecutive quarterly contraction.
Post election foreign Investor sell-off
• Following Erdogan’s election victory, foreign investors sold US$52mn of equities, while injected US$15mn into bonds on the week ending on June 2nd. So far this year, foreign investors have bid farewell to a substantial US$1.6bn equities while their sell off on the fixed income side was limited to US$27mn as there was not much left to divest. Foreign stake in the BIST free float plunged by 1pp on that week to 27.4% but started to inch up following Mehmet Simsek’s investor friendly comments reaching 27.9% as of today. In comparison, their presence in the bond market remains minuscule, at just 0.6.
1Q23 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
• MAVI - POSITIVE - Mavi disclosed solid results for 1Q23. The TRY512mn net profit is 29% better than the consensus mean, while the TRY905mn EBITDA is 17% higher than expectations. Mavi maintained its net cash position at 0.4x the EBITDA. The only drawback is that while the sales surged 109% y-y, the EBITDA expansion was limited to 65% as the EBITDA margin was down 6pp y-y to 23% due to elevated costs. Overall strong results. We expect positive market reaction.
NEWS FLOW:
• MGROS: Disclosed that it has decided not to appeal its fine by the Competition Board in the amount of TRY 388, and will apply to get back TRY 194mn of the fine.
• THYAO: Announced that its May 2023 passenger count increased by 16.1% to 7.4mn.
AGENDA:
• On the local front, the April Industrial Production Figures will be released, whereas China will be releasing its Inflation figures.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
                           ***
                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.