TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

BIST MUTES EARS TO GLOBAL NEGATIVITY AND SURGES ON SUPPORT FOR THE MTP
" The BIST100 closed yesterday 1.91% higher at 8338, and with a relatively lower-than usual turnover of TRY 149bn, but was never really threatened of profit-takings, as the recently unveiling of the Medium-Term Economic Program received wide support from both locals and internationals-best exemplified by Moody's comments ahead of its month-end credit rating disclosure that Turkey's post-election economic pivot was "clearly" positive for credit rating. The BIST managed to decouple positively from its European peers, as the Stoxx fell, anchored by the sales in the technology stocks after China banned iPhone use for government officials at work.
" Today, we expect a flat/positive opening due to Turkey's internal catalysts, whereas the Asian markets , but may face profit-takings either towards the end of the day, or on Monday, after Fitch's credit rating decision is priced-in, but maintain our mid-term upward view for the BIST, with a bias towards Agriculture and Discount Retail stores, as well as Banks and Conglomerates-aka "Most favoured stocks by foreign institutional clients."
" BIMAS, PETKM and EREGL were yesterday's biggest upwards movers, whereas HEKTS and SASA faced profit-takings, and were joined at the bottom 3 by ALARK shares. The Transportation stocks continued to diverge negatively from its peers due to the rise in the global Covid cases, as well as the rise in fuel prices. CIMSA and AKCNS were also yesterday's noteworthy stocks due to its public disclosure that Cimsa Americas have decided to invest in a gray grinding plant. Cimsa Americas is a wholly owned subsidiary of Sabanci Building Solutions BV (formerly Cimsa Sabanci Cement BV) who is owned 40% by Çimsa Çimento Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş. (Çimsa) and 60% by Çimsa's main shareholder Hacı Ömer Sabancı Holding A.Ş. An Engineering, Procurement and Construction Contract has been signed by Cimsa Americas and the investment is projected to have an estimated budget of USD 82 million with an annual average grinding capacity of 600 thousand tons. The investment will be financed by Sabanci Building Solutions BV's own resources and is planned to be completed in the last quarter of 2025.
" The TRY is trading slightly weaker this morning at 26.85 against the USD, but noticeably weaker against the Euro, as of yesterday's session close at 28.80, while the DXY has retreated below the 105 level to 104.87. On the Bonds' front, the 2yr rates fell by 11bps to 23.84%, while the 10yr rates rose by 146bps to 20.76%.
" Shifting our attention now to the commodity front, Brent is trading lower at USD 89.13, and ounce and gram GOLD are slightly higher at USD 1925 and TRY 1661, respectively.
" Yesterday, Treasury and Finance Minister, Mr. Mehmet Simsek stated that the MTP had the full support of President Erdogan. He added that there was no FX target, and that the top-most priority was strengthening the forex reserves, followed by the gradual liquidation of the FX-Protected Savings Deposits. On a similar note, the Head of the CBRT, Hafize Gaye Erkan stated that the World Bank's plans to double its exposure to Turkey in 3 years reflects investor interest in the country's potential.
" Turkey's Treasury Cash Balance gave a surplus of TRY 61.909bn in August.
" JP Morgan stated yesterday that it expects the MPC to hike rates by 500bps each at its meetings in September and October, revising upwards its earlier estimates of 250bps at each meeting.
AGENDA:
" On the local front, Fitch is expected to release its Turkey credit rating and outlook (B "Negative), whereas Germany is expected to release its August CPI figures, the IFO institute expects growth rate for 2023 to contract by 0.4%, and the US will release its Wholesale figures.
CORPORATE NEWS:
" MINING: Under the 3yr MTP program, it was disclosed in the Official Gazette that to make all operations more coherent and efficient, Mining actors would be merged under a single operation.
" Last week, Foreign Investors were net BUYERS of USD 254mn Turkish EQUITIES and net BUYERS of USD 375bn BONDS, its highest weekly purchase in 2.5 years.
" THYAO: Disclosed its August passenger numbers. Accordingly, the PAX numbers rose by 10.7% y/y to 8.7mn, and occupancy rate rose by 0.1pts to 86.2%. Jan-Aug passenger count rose by 20% to 56mn, and occupancy rate rose by 4% to 82.9%.
" YKSLN: Disclosed that it will establish a company in Germany.


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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