TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• Ahead of tonight’s FOMC meeting, it was a full risk-on mode at the BIST, closing nearly 2% higher at 4055, with a turnover of TRY 79.9bn, led by the gains in the Industrial and especially in the Energy stocks, whereas the Banks closed slightly negative after the CBRT’s stern warning. We may attribute the recent buying frenzy in the BIST, as a return to the “there is no-where else to park our cash to attain reasonable returns other than the Bourse” theme, after the CBRT sent out a warning letter to Banks against raising their deposit rates.
• SASA once again topped the gains at the BIST30, followed by TTKOM and TCELL, whereas ARCLK, GUBRF, and SISE were the most sold. AKCNS shares closed limit-up for a second straight day due to Erdogan’s 2023 Canal Istanbul Project.
• Today, we expect the positive mood to continue, although not as enthusiastically as the previous 2 days’ gains.
• Currently, the TRY is trading flat at 18.62, after seeming to have had broken its chains and rose to 18.67, and whereas the 2yr rates fell by 21bps to 14.90%, thus below the 15% level, the 10yr yields continued to go the opposite direction, rising by 45bps to 12.51%. The 5yr CDS rates fell a further 6pts to 659.
• The yield of 3-month treasury bill of US is higher than the 30-year bond which is usually sign of impending recession. A similar event happened during the Covid, 2008 mortgage crisis and dotcom bubble.
• On the commodity front, Brent is trading flat at USD 94.28, after rising by over 2% yesterday, and both ounce and gram GOLD are higher at USD 1650 and TRY 986, as the commodity anxiously awaits Powell’s post policy-rate speech. Though the market consensus is overwhelmingly for a 75bps rate hike, Powell’s tone will be the key determinant to how the markets react the day after.

3Q22 RESULTS:
• TSKB: TSKB posted TRY1.12bn net profit in its 3Q22 financials that is 5.5% above the TRY1.06bn consensus mean. This bottomline is 280% above that of last year, which is a solid growth yet it lags behind the 400% expansion of the deposit banks. ROE stands at an all-time high level of 58%. Just like the deposit banks, the surge in profits stem from CPI linker bonds that make up 68% of the bank’s TRY bond portfolio. The bank plugs-in 81% CPI assumption in the calculation of linkers for the first 9 months. Core margin, when we isolate the contribution from CPI linkers, is up by a healthy 20bp q-q. There are two drawbacks in the financials i) Opex evolution, ii) Cost of risk. Opex is up by 98%, while the budget was in-line with the inflation. High Opex is compensated via 135% surge in fee growth. Cost of risk budget for the year that was originally set at 200bp was upped to 250bp in 2Q22. However the net COR figure currently stands at 318bp for 3Q22. Still the 3.1% NPL ratio is not a cause for concern in our view, due to the lower risk sectors the bank is focused on. The bank’s loans are concentrated on electricity production (43% of total loans) and electricity/gas distribution (6% of total loans) sectors, remaining more or less stable compared to a quarter earlier. Satisfactory results overall
• CIMSA: NI: TRY1.92bn vs Consensus TRY 1.615bn vs TRY 49.4mn y/y
• ENJSA: NI: TRY1.20bn vs Consensus TRY 692mn vs TRY 534mn y/y
• KORDS: NI: TRY324mn vs Consensus TRY 292mn vs TRY 141mn y/y

AGENDA:
• There are no major local macro releases expected today, whereas the FOMC rate decision, with a 75bps rate hike all but priced-in, but more importantly, Powell’s hawkish/dovish rhetoric will be the main focal point, followed by the ADP figures, and Germany’s PMI data.


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.



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