TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST closed Friday on a sharp loss of 3.58% at 4618, with a turnover of TRY 46.6bn, with the Banks spearheading the losses by falling 4.40%, and the Mining Index falling by nearly 4%, aggregating its weekly sell-offs to 16.50%.
• On a weekly basis, the BIST100 fell by 7.87%, with the Banks losing 8.33%, and the Industrial and Conglomerates fell by 7.52% and 7.71%, respectively, but no one was really left unscathed, and investors are on risk-off mode ahead of the May 14th elections. Increasing TRY time deposit costs are also stealing away from the stock market.
• EREGL was the only stock that managed to close in the positive among the blue-chip stocks on Friday, thanks to its announcement of a share buyback program, whereas TOASO, FROTO and AKBNK were the most sold.
• Today, we expect a flat opening after Friday’s bloodbath, and the end of the long weekend.
• As of Friday’s close, the TRY is trading flat at 19.46 against the USD, and 21.34 against the USD, and on the Bonds’ side, the 2yr rates fell by 226bps to 13.57%, whereas the 10yr rates rose by 52bps to 12.89%.
• On the commodity front, Brent is trading slightly higher at USD 70.28, and ounce and gram GOLD are also calm this morning at USD 1983 and TRY USD 1241, respectively.
• Turkey’s March Trade Deficit came in at USD 8.34bn vs the estimate USD 8.60bn, with Exports increasing by 4.4% to USD 23.6bn and Imports rose by 3.4% to USD 31.9bn.
• Minister of Labour, Mr. Vedat Bilgin stated yesterday that they would revise the minimum wage level taking into consideration the life standards to protect labour workers.
1Q23 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
• ANHYT POSITIVE: Posted TRY397mn net profit in the first quarter, 10.2% above expectations. While net profit grew 110% year-on-year, it contracted by 33% quarter-on-quarter.
• AKCNS: POSITIVE: 1Q23 EBITDA and net profit exceeded market consensus by 14.2% and 46.2% and stood at TRY646mn and TRY672mn respectively. EBITDA margin exceeded expectations by 260bps at 21.2% while net sales for quarter were in line with forecasted at TRY3,042mn.
• AYGAZ: NEGATIVE: The company posted disappointing financials in terms of profitability. 1Q23 EBITDA came out 37% below expectation at TRY38mn. Net Sales for the quarter were in line with market consensus at TRY12,434mn. EBITDA margin stood at 0.3% vs the forecast of 0.5%. Net Income came out 42% above estimated at TRY687mn due to slightly better than expected contribution from EYAS, which is an indirect 20% participation of Aygaz, accounted under equity pick-up method. The Company's changed it's autogas sales volume guidance from 700-730k tons to 730-760k tons. Cylinder volume guidance remained as 245-255k tons.
• BNTAS NEUTRAL: In line with our expectation BNTAS delivered a net income of TRY15mn in 1Q23. EBITDA increased by 24% q-q, settling at TRY12.4mn, while the EBITDA margin has increased by 1.7pp q-q to 12%. Q1 results point to an improvement, but still far from previous years. Rising opex, high inventory base and decreasing metal can prices, coupled with the inability of passing on these costs to its clientele, price adjustments fell behind the escalating costs, resulted in contraction in operational earnings y-y.
• KLKIM: NEUTRAL: The company posted financials for 1Q23 in line with market forecasts. Net sales and EBITDA for the quarter stood at TRY602mn and TRY118mn. EBITDA margin was also in line with market consensus at 19.6%. Net profit however exceeded expectation by 8% and came out at TRY94mn.
• SISE: POSITIVE: 1Q23 Net sales, EBITDA and net profit exceeded market consensus by 2.3%, 17.4% and 9.5% respectively. EBITDA stood at TRY5,708mn and net profit came out at TRY2,364mn and the company posted net sales in line with expectation at TRY28,365mn. EBITDA margin exceeded at 20.1% exceeded expectation by 259bps.
• YKBNK: POSITIVE: Yapi Kredi Bank has reported an impressive 1Q23 net profit of TRY12.6bn, surpassing the consensus mean of TRY11.2bn by 12%. The bottom-line exceeded even TFG’s estimate of TRY11.6bn, which was the highest in the market. This outstanding performance was driven by better-than-expected earnings from subsidiaries, which saw a 78% increase q-q, and a substantial boost in trading profits, up by 209% q-q. Although Ykbnk's net income experienced a decline of 27% q-q, (Akbnk:-51%, Garan: -21%), the ROE still came in at peer-topping 40%.
NEWS FLOW:
• AKSEN: Disclosed that it will set aside 30mn shares, equivalent to roughly TRY 1bn, for share buybacks.
• DOAS: Disclosed that its holiday resort, D-Marin Didim is officially open.
• FONET: Disclosed that it has signed a 36-month agreement with Aydin City Health Center worth TRY 12.1mn
AGENDA:
• This week, the local investors will be following the PMI, Inflation (EST: 2.60% mm/44.10% yy), as well as the Net Change in Foreigners’’ STOCK/BOND holdings, and the Effective Exchange Rate, as well as the MPC Summary Report and CBRT Inflation Report.
• Important macro releases from abroad include the US, Eurozone and China PMI figures, US Construction Expenditure, ADP, FOMC Policy Rate decision, and the NFP. The Eurozone will release the estimated Inflation Figures, and the ECB policy rate will also be disclosed this week.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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