Morning Report (Trive Yatırım Menkul Değerler )

HAWKISH CBRT STANCE TRIGGERS SELL-OFFS
" The BIST100 fell yesterday by nearly ¾'s percent to 11,090, and with a turnover of TRY 110.8bn, led by the near 2% sell-offs in the Banks due to JPMorgan's negative banking report, the political uncertainty in the US after Biden's exit from the elections, and the mood did not improve after the CBRT's MPC meeting stated that additional tightening in monetary policy would be implemented if necessary, even as its expects disinflation to gain strength, while leaving the policy rate unchanged at 50%, thus in line with the market expectation.
" The Asian markets are trading mixed this morning after the lacklustre earnings numbers from the US tech firms such as Tesla and Alphabet, despite the former beating the market revenue and profit targets.
" The CBRT said yesterday that it's focusing attention on a build-up of lira liquidity as it extended its interest-rate pause into a fourth month. It repeated that the sterilization of liquidity "will be implemented effectively" with additional tools, with state media reporting that the authority is preparing to use foreign exchange and gold swaps to mop up excess liras.
" BNP Paribas stated that they envisage the CBRT reducing the policy rate by 10pts in the 4th quarter to 40% from the current 50% level.
" As such, the Banks and Transportation stocks fell by 1.92% and 1.30%, respectively, with the losses at the Industrial and Conglomerates less than their peers, and the Energy stocks diverged positively from their peers.
" ASELS-ODAS and ARCLK were yesterday's biggest earners, while ISCTR-EKGYO and TAVHL suffered the biggest retreat.
" As of print, the TRY is trading flat against the greenback at 32.83, but a tad stronger against the Euro at 35.62, and the DXY is also calm this morning at 104.42. The 2yr Bond Rates rose by 12bps to 42.29%, while the 10yr rates closed 21bps lower to 27.84%.
" On the Commodity front, Brent is trading slightly higher this morning at $80.38, thanks to the fall in US crude inventories, and GOLD has risen noticeably to $2416.
" The consumer confidence index dropped 3.1% to 75.9 in July from 78.3 in June. The reading marked the lowest since November 2023 as overall sentiments deteriorated during the month.
" Yesterday, at its 2Q24 Preview Report for Banks, JPM cautioned core trends to worsen further, but that the 2Q will likely mark the trough, stating that GARAN will diverge positively and ISCTR the weakest at the core level.
" Morgan Stanley also issued a Banking Report, cutting GARAN to EW from OW, and cutting ISCTR to UW from EW, while maintaining YK at EQ and AKBNK at OW.
" U.S. Senator Bob Menendez submitted his resignation on Tuesday in the aftermath of his conviction on corruption charges including bribery and acting as an agent for Egypt's government. Senator Menendez had been a vocal opponent of Türkiye receiving aircraft to update its fighter fleet. His resignation may pave the way for improved relations with the US, and be beneficial for the arm sector, such as ASELS shares.
" The Treasury and Finance Minister, alongside the CBRT President, will be flying to Brazil, to attend the G20 meetings.


AGENDA

" There are no major macro releases expected on the home front, whereas across our borders, the PMI Mfg. figures will be released from the US and the Eurozone.
CORPORATE NEWS
" MGROS: Disclosed that it has signed an agreement to sell 100% shares as well as liabilities of its subsidiary Ramstore Kazakhstan LLC ("Ramstore Kazakhstan"), which previously divested food retail operations in Kazakhstan and continues its operations solely with the management of a shopping mall in Almaty, for approximately USD 34.5 million at current exchange rate (USD 21,578,200 and EUR 11,800,000) to TOO Evrazia Almaty.

 
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