Morning Report (Trive Yatırım Menkul Değerler )

RISK-ON, RISK OFF
" Despite a positive start to the day, the BIST failed to capitalize on Thursday's risk-on mode, and closed the week 1.61% lower to 9822, after peaking at 10,055, but with a low turnover of just TYR 76bn.
" The Banks led the selloffs, by falling over 2%, and followed by the Conglomerates and the Industrial stocks, while despite the spread of the global Monkey Pox cases, the Aviation stocks managed to diverge positively from their peers, mainly THYAO, due to being upgraded to "Overweight" by JPMorgan, with a 12mth target price of TRY 494.
" As such, only THYAO managed a positive closing among the BIST30 stocks, while ENKAI and KOZAL were the least sold blue-chips. On the bottom of the list-OYAKC-GARAN and KRDMD were the most sold. Please recall that on the back on the falling prices due to the lag in demand from China on steel prices, we would be cautious on the sector stocks.
" For the week, the BIST100 fell by 0.86%, and the BIST30 fell by 0.64%. On a sector basis, after the recent lag, the Banks managed to close 3.53% higher for the week, while the Transportation Stocks, on the back of the sharp drop in the Aviation stocks due to the increase in the Monkey Pox cases, were the most sold stocks. The Conglomerates and Industrials also had a hand in the selloffs, while parallel to the rise in GOLD prices, the Mining stocks also managed to diverge positively from its peers.
" The TRY weakened against the USD by 0.37%, but was less under control against the Euro, depreciating by 1.50%.
" On the Commodity front, Brent fell by 0.35% on the back of expectations of a successful cease fire brokerage in the Middle East, which will continue this week in Egypt, but also due to the slowdown in the Chinese economic activity, and GOLD prices rose by 3.17%, as a Fed rate cut in September, is practically in the pocket, and investors will be closely following Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium this week for more clues and clarity as to how many rate cuts to expect.
" As of print, the TRY is trading flat against the USD at 33.69, but is slightly weaker against the Euro at 37.20, while the DXY has dropped to 102.16. The 2yr and 10yr local Bond yields closed the week 8bps and 11 bps lower to 42.32% and 28.69%, respectively.
" On the Commodity front, Brent is trading below the $79 ticker this morning at $78.93, in hopes of a cease-fire in the Middle East, and GOLD is calm this morning at $2501.
" Goldman Sachs has lowered the odds of the United States slipping into a recession in the next 12 months to 20% from 25% following the latest weekly jobless claims and retail sales reports.
" July Home Prices fell by a decline of 38.7% in nominal terms and 14.3% when adjusted for inflation.
" According to the 12mth Inflation Survey, the CPI year-end expectation has increased to 43.31% from 42.95%. The USD/TRY is expected to close at 37.2760 from 37.3667 at year-end, while the 12mth projection has been increased to 42.0348 from 41.5175.
" AUTUMOTIVE: Production for the Jan-Jul. period fell by 5% to 823,636 units y/y. Commercial vehicle production fell by 12%, and heavy commercial vehicle production fell by 18%, while LCV production fell by 11%. Imports rose to their highest rate in 10 years to 76% due to the increase in more price-competitive Chinese vehicles due to the local cars' inclusion in the 80% tax bracket.

AGENDA

" The local macro agenda will kick-off with the One-Week Rep Rate (Expected to remain unchanged at 50%) and continue with the Consumer Confidence Level-Net Change in Non-Resident STOCK/BOND Holdings and conclude with the Foreign Tourist Arrivals.
" On the international front, FOMC Summary Minutes-Weekly Jobless Claims-PMI Manufacturing figures-and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will kick-off of the Jackson Hole Fed Symposium on Friday, to be held between 22-24 August. Elsewhere, the Eurozone and Japan will disclose their Inflation figures, and the Eurozone PMI figures will also be carefully monitored.
" CCOLA is expected to release its quarterly financials after the markets close today.

2Q2024 FINANCIAL RESULTS
" ENKAI: Disclosed a quarterly net income above expectations at TRY 6.36bn, thus increasing its 6-month profits to TRY 11.05bn.
" VESBE: Disclosed a quarterly net income of TRY 610k, thus raising its 6mth profits to TRY 669.05k.

CORPORATE
" TSKB: Disclosed that partial demerger application has been rescinded, since it has not been possible to finalize the partial demerger transaction within the legal period (up until 31 August 2024), due to the fact that the date of financial statements which the application to be based on required to be updated.


 
 Trive Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  https://www.trive.com.tr/

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                        Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.