Mornıng Report (Trive Yatırım Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST100 closed a stressful and uncertain week on a loss of 1.37% at 10,139, with a low turnover of TRY 71.3bn, but parallel to the risk-off mode in the global markets, on the back of the higher-than-expected US NFP figures, coupled by the likely transaction-based tax rate on stocks and cryptos, which will surely impact at the forefront, the trading volume at the BIST, as it may cause for many HFT funds to lessen their trades and exposure in Türkiye.
• One of the most important features of the BIST over its EM peers, is its large turnover and liquidity volume, an important attribute in attracting large foreign funds, which may come into question if the rate is as high as murmured across the trading floors- between 1-3bps/transaction per media reports. However, traders are still waiting for a concrete figure and resolution on the precise transaction rate, thus the main culprit for the current turnover to be below the $100bn level.
• The Banks were the most sold stocks, falling by 2.80%, whereas the Industrial and Conglomerates fell by 1.28% and 1.27%, respectively. The Transportation stocks were cushioned against the risk-off mode thanks to the fall in Brent prices, and the beginning of the summer season, as the temperatures are already in the 30s, and the outlook for the Tourism season looks quite shiny as well.
• TAVHL-AKSEN and FROTO were Friday’s most bought top 3 blue-chips, whereas ARCLK-KRDMD and ISCTR were the most sold.
• For the week, the BIST100 and the BIST30 fell by 2.51% and 3.29%, respectively, mostly due to the Treasury and Finance Minister’s statement that there may be a very limited fee or taxation on a transaction-based basis on stocks and cryptocurrencies, while denying original speculations of a taxation on securities’ gains for cryptos and stocks.
• The Banks faced the brunt of the selloffs, falling by 6.02%, followed by the 3.92 and 2.40 losses in the Conglomerates and Industrials. The Transportation stocks managed to close the week flat, while the losses among the other main sectors were roughly over 2%.
• The TRY also weakened against the greenback by 0.43% and 0.15%, while the yields on the 2yr and 10yr Bonds closed 1.32% and 1.12% higher to 42.16% and 27.93%, respectively.
• The Commodities fell last week due to the strong NFP figure, and the postponement of the expected rate hike from the Fed to December-Brent fell by 2.43%, and GOLD by 1.43%.
• As of print, the TRY is trading weaker against the USD at 32.47, but stronger against the Euro at 34.91, due to the gains in the far-right parties in the European Parliament elections, prompting French President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap national election, thus adding to the uncertainty regarding Europe’s political future. The DXY has consequently risen to 105.30.
• On the commodity front, Brent is trading higher this morning at $79.70, and GOLD is up a tad to $2396.
• Due to the upcoming Eid break next week, we expect a negative and low turnover to prevail, and may see potential profit-taking occur on Wednesday, as investors would not want to carry the burden of the high carrying interest rate on their credit positions. However, investors will be looking for any clarifications regarding the amount of the potential “transaction-based” tax rate.
• On Friday, Treasury and Finance Minister, Mr. Mehmet Simsek, disclosed that they are working on a new compulsory insurance coverage for natural disasters such as floods and earthquakes.
• In May, Foreign Tourist arrival to Türkiye rose by 10% y/y to 5.244mn. It is widely expected that tourist arrivals this summer will be buoyant.
• The conversion rate for exporters to convert their FX revenues to TRY has been reduced to 30% from the previous 40% rate.

AGENDA

• The local agenda this week is fairly light, kicking off with the Unemployment-Industrial Production and Current Account Balance, and followed by the Retail Trade-Home Sales Figures, and closing with the Weekly Change in Non-Resident STOCK/BOND holdings.
• On the international front, the Inflation Rate and the FOMC meeting will be the key-very key, macro releases from the US, while the Eurozone will be disclosing the Trade Balance, and Germany will release its Inflation Figures.

CORPORATE NEWS

• In May, the most bought stocks by Foreign Investors were: ALARK-BIMAS-SAHOL-EREGL and KRDMD, whereas the most sold were: THYAO-TUPRS-YKBNK-KCHOL and GARAN.

 
 Trive Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  https://www.trive.com.tr/

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                        Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.