Market Watch(Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Tuesday, April 18, 2023
Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Monday with buyers. The Benchmark Index then declined amid afternoon sales to close at 5,059.35, down 0.66%. The Banking Index lost 0.11% and the Industrial Index 0.50%. Election uncertainty and the expectation that orthodox policies may be adopted thereafter, plus the rise in deposit rates, including Currency Protected Deposits suggest selling pressure for the BIST. In light of these, we expect purchases ahead of the election to present a selling opportunity. The fluctuating course will continue within the broad band that the index has seen since the start of the year. Incidentally, we expect stock and sector-based divergences to impact the market in the short term with the effect of the 1Q23 results season that commences this week. In major global stock markets risk appetite has attempted a recovery. US indices closed the day with a rise. This morning German DAX futures have traded with buyers while US futures and Asian indices have observed a mixed course. Domestically, the VIOP-30 Index closed the evening session up a limited 0.10%. We expect the Benchmark Index to start Tuesday positively and thereafter pursue a volatile course, with any intraday gains presenting a selling opportunity. SUPPORT: 5,058- 5,000 RESISTANCE: 5,144 - 5,206.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.10% compared to the USD to close to 19.3843. In addition, the currency appreciated by 0.21% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were positive. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 12.17%-12.28%, ending the day at a low of 12.17%, 15 bps below its previous closing.
Headlines:
While the budget deficit is realized as 47.2 billion TL in March, the primary balance gives a deficit of 2.1 billion TL. The impact of the disaster on the budget continues to decrease
According to the March central government budget data published by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, budget revenues were 287 billion TL and budget expenditures were 334 billion TL. In the same period, non-interest budget expenditures were realized as 289 billion TL. In the light of these data, the budget deficit was 47.2 billion TL, while the primary balance gave a deficit of 2.1 billion TL. No payment was made for KKM and BOTAS in March. The near-flat course in the exchange rate in the January-March period eased the burden of KKM on the budget. On the other hand, with the end of the winter season, there will be a decline in the amounts BOTAS received from the treasury. In this period, the main burden on the budget consists of current transfers, infrastructure investments and resources transferred to the natural disaster area. We anticipate that these transfers, whose burden on the budget was felt more severely in February, will continue to decrease in the first half of the year.
Budget expenditures increased by 48.5% on average compared to the same period of the previous year. Capital transfers (1,210%) and capital expenditures (145%) are the items with the highest expense increase. Nominal increases in personnel expenses and current transfers are remarkable. Personnel expenses increased by approximately 45 billion TL, while current transfers increased by 39 billion TL. The average annual increase in budget revenues is around 84%. The highest increase was noted in non-tax revenues (231%) and revenues of regulatory and supervisory agencies (337%). Corporate tax was the item that experienced the hardest contraction with a decrease of 75%. The current transfers, which started after the natural disaster in February, will continue to reduce the burden on the budget. The first half of the year will be difficult due to the retirement on the budget, the election atmosphere, the investments made for the compensation of the natural disaster and the resources spent.
Sector News:
According to Bloomberg, the CBRT verbally notified certain local banks last week to limit the amount of dollar purchases they make in the interbank market so as to ease pressure on the lira.
International credit rating agency S&P has stated that the banking systems of Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia, Qatar and Tunisia have the potential to be vulnerable to global liquidity changes. S&P has predicted that Turkish banks' CoR will increase from 2.8% in 2022 to 3.2% in 2023, while the NPL ratio of 2.2% at the end of 2022 will reach the 4-5% range. According to weekly BRSA data the NPL ratio of the sector is at the level of 1.8%.

Company News:
Akbank (AKBNK.TI; OP) has applied to the Capital Markets Board to issue a social themed debt instrument abroad with a maturity of 369 days and an amount of USD22mn.
Sabanci Holding (SAHOL.TI; OP) has announced a buyback on Borsa Istanbul of a nominal 500,000 of its own shares, representing 0.0245% of the Company's capital at a price of 40.50-40.70 TRY/share.
VakifBank (VAKBN.TI; MP) bought back 73,865 of its own shares at a price of TRY9.48 on 17 April 2023, regarding the variable payments to be made to qualified employees within the scope of "Guideline on Good Remuneration Practices in Banks" published by the BRSA.

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                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.