Market Watch - Thursday, December 19, 2024
Outlook:
The BIST 100 Index started Wednesday on a negative trend, fluctuating within a wide range thereafter to close the day at 9,915.76, down 0.95%. The Industrial Index fell by 1.36%, while the Banking Index dropped by 0.40%. As the technical correction at the BIST continues, momentum is weakening. In the current outlook, we believe the technical correction could persist for a while. However, we maintain our view that sharp pullbacks will be seen as buying opportunities as long as expectations of interest rate cuts and economic recovery remain intact. Global markets focused on yesterday's Fed meeting. As expected, the Fed implemented a 25 bps rate cut, lowering the rate to the 4.25%-4.50% range. At this meeting, the Fed revised its inflation expectations for 2024 and 2025 upward and reduced its forecast for rate cuts in 2025 from four to two. Speaking after the meeting, Powell shared his view that the economy is in a good position and stated that the Fed would proceed cautiously with rate cuts. In summary, yesterday's Fed meeting supported the strong dollar theme while reducing appetite for risky assets. The U.S. markets closed with losses ranging between 2.6% and 3.6% midweek. This morning, the U.S. futures are generally positive, while German DAX futures and Asian markets are trading negatively. We believe the Fed's cautious stance could exert medium-term pressure on global risk appetite. Domestically, the minimum wage commission meetings are being closely followed. Globally, while the BoJ kept its rates unchanged, today's focus will be on the BoE's meeting (expected to keep rates steady) and the final Q3 GDP data from the U.S. The VIOP30 Index closed the evening session down 0.80%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Thursday slightly lower and to assume an uptrend if recovery-buying gains strength during the day. SUPPORT: 9,850 - 9,750 RESISTANCE: 10,000 - 10,150.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.07% against the USD to close at 35.0168. The currency also appreciated by 0.05% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were relatively flat. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 29.82%-30.12%, ending at the 30.06%, unchanged from its previous closing.
Headlines:
*** According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey communiqué published in the Official Gazette, the reserve requirement ratio for liabilities other than deposits/participation funds, excluding those belonging to foreign banks, with maturities longer than one year will be 0% until December 19, 2025. This date was set as December 20, 2024 before the amendment. The mechanism, which is reorganized to prevent volatility in FX liquidity in debt maturities and to encourage long-term borrowing, also aims to limit the recent pressure on the USD/TL (Limited Positive).
Company News:
Agreements regarding aircraft payloads, including Avionics, Communication, Radar, Electronic-Warfare, Electro-Optic, Navigation and Guidance systems development and procurement have been signed between Aselsan (ASELS.TI; OP) and TUSAŞ. Deliveries will be made in the period of 2024 - 2028. A portion of the agreements valued at USD 329,000,000,- has been activated. The contract size corresponds to ~2.6% of Aselsan's total order size. (Positive).
According to Voice of America, Halkbank (HALKB.TI; MP), which is being tried as a defendant in the Rıza Sarraf case in the Southern District of New York, has applied to have the case brought back to the US Supreme Court. In the application, it was stated that the bank had applied to the Constitutional Court to re-evaluate the decision made by the same court regarding the possibility of being tried in the US by exercising its right of appeal. Halkbank also requested that the judicial process in a lower court where it is being tried in the Rıza Sarraf case be suspended until the legal process in the Constitutional Court is completed, and the court announced that it accepted HalkBank's application. Thus, Halkbank is given the right to defend itself again if the US Supreme Court accepts the application. The decision also emphasized that all stages regarding HalkBank's appeal to the Constitutional Court and the judicial process in a lower court where it will be tried until the application is decided have been completely halted (Positive).
Isbank (ISCTR.TI; OP) has purchased 6.3mn of Sise Cam (SISE.TI; OP) shares in TRY41,26-41,82 price range and increased its stake to 51.43% (Neutral).
Isbank Pension Fund has bought 8mn Isbank (ISCTR.TI; OP) shares for TRY13.30-13.47 price range and increased its stake to %38.40 (Neutral).
Şeker Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
www.sekeryatirim.com.tr
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Yasal Uyarı
Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.