Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Wednesday, July 19, 2023
Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Tuesday on a positive trend, following a selling course after peaking at a record 6,662.17. The Benchmark Index closed the day at 6,365.00, down 3.57%. The Banking Index lost 6.32% and the Industrial Index lost 3.60%. The TRY also depreciated by over 2% against the dollar. We expect the weak/fluctuating course in TRY-based assets to continue until tomorrow's CBRT meeting, the outcome of which will support the search for a medium-term direction. While factors such as the preference for gradual normalization post election, continuation of the negative real interest rate policy, and foreign inflows support the BIST, we think that it is normal to experience occasional profit realizations. In the medium term, market direction will become clear once the steps to be taken and the economic program are known. In major global stock markets firm risk appetite continues. Yesterday, European and U.S. Stock Markets ended the day with rises. And while the U.S. futures and Asian Stock Markets were mixed this morning German DAX futures followed a slight selling course. The VIX hovers around 13, continuing to point to low volatility and selling pressure in the U.S. Stock Markets. Despite profit-taking in the short-term in major global stock markets, we expect the uptrend in risky assets to continue, as long as no macro data points to a recession, with declines presenting buying opportunities. The VIOP-30 Index ended the evening session down 0.39%. Locally, we foresee the Benchmark Index starting the day negatively. Selling pressure will continue as reactionary rises prompt profit realization. SUPPORT: 6,287 - 6,205 RESISTANCE: 6,406 - 6,477.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 2.22% compared to the USD to close to 26.9305. In addition, the currency depreciated by 2.20% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were negative. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 18.09%-18.24%, ending the day at a high of 18.24%, 1.22 pp above its previous closing.
Company News:
For Isbank (ISCTR.TI; OP) our 2Q23 net income estimate is TRY13,255 (+3% QoQ, -9% YoY) with a quarterly ROAE of 29%. We expect the bank to post an eye-catching TRY9bn trading gain and solid TRY5bn subsidiary income for 2Q23. The main negative detail of the quarter is the sharp decline in NII by 25% due to the strong growth in TRY deposits (QoQ: 25%). Subdued TRY loan growth (QoQ: +5%), strong 25% increase in TRY deposits, a sharp 11% decline in FC deposits, recovery in fee and commission income (QoQ: +22%) and normalized OPEX stand out as other important details of the quarter.
We are modeling a steep 400bps tightening of the loan-deposit spread QoQ. CPI linker income should rise 5% QoQ as the bank uses a different valuation methodology. We foresee a 33% fall in swap funding costs while cumulative NIM should reach 5% by 1H23. On the asset quality side, the cumulative CoR (net) should hit 100bps due to higher ECL (Neutral).

Şeker Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
www.sekeryatirim.com
 

                                  ***
                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.