Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Friday, September 15, 2023
Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Thursday on a negative trend, tested 7,797 and ended the day at 8,119, up 1.31%. While the Banking Index decreased by 0.09%, the Industrial Index rose 0.93%. After the BIST's strong short-term rally profit-taking is observed due to the loss of momentum in domestic and international investor demand and the absence of significant expectations. Although there may be occasional reactionary purchases in the market, we think that these will offer a selling opportunity for the short term. That being said, since the high inflation and negative real interest environment will continue for some time yet, profit-taking will in turn present a buying opportunity for the medium term. In addition, the meeting of Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Simsek with foreign investors in the USA on September 19 may keep expectations alive, prompting buying. The fact that industrial production and retail sales data from China this morning printed better than expected supports risk appetite in key global stock markets. Elsewhere this morning, the U.S. futures, German DAX futures and Asian Stock Markets are trending positively. Industrial production data will be followed in the USA today, and may impact risk appetite. In the domestic market Central Government Budget data will be announced today. The VIOP-30 Index ended the evening session up 0.17%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Friday with a positive trend, and reactionary purchases seem set to continue. SUPPORT: 8,080 - 7,977 RESISTANCE: 8,218 - 8,298.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.01% compared to the USD to close to 26.9425. In addition, the currency appreciated by 0.40% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were negative. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 23.71%-24.42%, ending the day at a high of 24.42%, 2.04 pp above its previous closing.
Headlines:
*** Locally Central Government Budget data will be released today. Although public revenues have relatively recovered with tax increases, and expenditures have recovered with the exclusion of KKM from the budget, the deterioration in current transfers continues. We expect the deterioration in the budget balance to continue in the second half of the year. Our detailed analysis will be published later in the day.
Sector News:
BRSA weekly: Currency protected deposits fell by TRY72bn and 2.2% over the past three weeks. According to weekly BRSA data as of September 8, 2023, the sector's FC deposits (in $ terms) declined by by a limited USD722mn to USD205.2bn on a weekly basis.
There was a 0.2% decline in FC deposits (in $ terms) WoW at state deposit banks, and foreign and private deposit banks' FC deposits fell by 1.0% and 0.6% WoW. The share of FC deposits in total deposits fell by 30bps weekly to 42.1%.
Decelerated drop in Currency-protected deposits. The decline in TRY volume slightly eased to 0.5% weekly from 0.6% the previous week. These deposits' total amount declined to TRY3.33 trillion. This marks the third weekly decline in a row amounting to TRY72bn and 2.2%. In dollar terms, the volume also fell by 1.0% weekly to USD124.7bn. Their weight in FC deposits fell by a further 40bps WoW to 60.8%.
Individual FC deposits (in $ terms) fell sharply WoW. Individual FC deposits (in $ terms) fell by USD1.3bn and 1.0% on a weekly basis. Yet commercial institutions' FC deposits (in $ terms) rose by USD673mn and 0.9% WoW. Lastly, official and other institutions' FC deposits rose by USD64mn and 1.3% WoW.
Accelerated TRY deposits growth. Total TRY deposits' growth improved to 1.2% from 0.1% WoW in the previous week. Individual deposits rose by TRY39bn and 0.9%, while those of commercial institutions up by TRY36bn (+1.5%) WoW. Other institutions' TRY deposits rose sharply by and 2.3% WoW.
Record high TRY commercial loans rates. On the funding side, the weighted average interest rate on TRY deposits with maturities of up to 3M rose by another 328bps WoW to 40.87%. The weighted average TRY commercial loans rates (excluding overdraft and corporate credit cards) rose by 322bps WoW to 40.59%. This is the record high level since September 2018. Thus the difference between 3M TRY deposits and TRY commercial loan rates rose to 28bps, vs. 22bps in the previous week.
Slight decline in FC long positions. The sector's FC long position fell slightly by 3% WoW to 4,915 million dollars.
State deposit banks' long position fell by 6% WoW to USD1,632mn. On the other hand, for foreign deposit banks, the position declined by a limited USD4mn weekly to USD1,498mn. For private deposit banks it declined by 3% on a weekly basis to $1,539mn.
The sector's FC net general position/regulatory capital ratio declined to 5.9% from 6.0% in the previous week. On a segmental basis, this ratio is 6.2% and 7.8% in state and foreign deposit banks, and 5.1% in private deposit banks.
Company News:
With the decision of the Turkcell (TCELL.TI; OP) Board of Directors, Bülent Aksu has been appointed General Manager and Şenol Kazancı the Chairman of the Board.



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  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.