Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Wednesday, August 14, 2024

Outlook:
 
The BIST100 Index started Tuesday flat and dropped to 9,708 levels during the day. The Benchmark Index recovered with purchases towards the close to end at 9,920.61, up 0.94%. While the Industrial Index gained 0.59% the Banking Index diverged positively, up 2.75%. Recovery at the BIST continues, led by the Banking Index. We think that if it lasts it will tend to close the price gap that occurred last week. However, since the lack of expectations continues in the short term, we expect the volatile course at the BIST to persist. U.S. PPI data was followed on the global front yesterday, and printing somewhat below expectations, it increased optimism regarding interest rate cuts. Today, markets will focus on U.S. CPI data, out at 15:30 GMT. Yesterday, the U.S. and European stock markets in general ended with increases. This morning, ahead of the CPI data, the U.S. futures and German DAX futures are on the rise, while Asian stock markets are in mixed mood. We expect global markets to remain balanced unless incoming data increases recession concerns. The VIOP30 Index ended the evening session up 0.21%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start Wednesday positively and continue its fluctuating course thereafter. SUPPORT: 9,750 - 9,600 RESISTANCE: 10,250 - 10,500.
Money Market:
The Lira was positive yesterday, gaining 0.02% against the USD to close at 33.5535. The currency also depreciated by 0.10% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were negative. The ten-year benchmark bond yield fluctuated between a range of 28.47%-28.66%, closing the day at 28.63%, up 30 bps from the previous close.
Headlines:
*** Current account balance posts a surplus of USD407 million in June, while the 12-month cumulative current account deficit was realized as USD24.8 billion. The improvement in the balance of payments continues as seasonal effects come into play… According to balance of payments statistics, the current account balance posted a surplus of 407 million US dollars in June. As a result, the twelve-month current account deficit was realized as USD24,833 million (previous USD24,472 million). The current account surplus, which was realized above the market expectations (USD300 million surplus), indicates that the improvement in the balance of payments became more evident thanks to the summer season. This development was mainly driven by the balance of payments-defined foreign trade deficit of USD4,139 million and services inflows of USD5,603 million. The 12-month cumulative foreign trade deficit declined to USD87.6 billion (May 2023 peak was USD122 billion) due to the tightening steps that started after June 2023. The downward trend in the monthly foreign trade deficit is a reflection of both monetary policy and global economic developments. We expect the improvement in the services balance to continue until the end of September and the tight monetary policy to support the improvement in the foreign trade balance in this process. As the seasonal effects on the balance of payments will be temporary, the improvement in the foreign trade balance will continue to support price stability through structural transformation.
Improvements in the current account balance, especially if they are driven by the recovery in external demand, will have a positive impact on production and growth indicators. The current account excluding gold and energy posted a surplus of USD4,549 million this month. We expect that the calm course in energy prices will continue until the end of 2024, and that the improvement in core current account indicators will become more evident. The gap between headline and core figures will continue to narrow if the monetary policy stance remains tight. We expect the USD/TL exchange rate to follow a volatile course in the second half of the year as inflation expectations improve, especially due to the demand for imported goods and speculative demand.




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                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.