Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Monday, August 12, 2024

Outlook:

The BIST100 Index started Friday on a positive trend, but encountered sharp sales at the opening and remained negative throughout the day. The Benchmark Index closed the day at 9,907.38, down 1.89%. While the Industrial Index decreased by 1.52%, the Banking Index continued its negative divergence, down 4.43%. On a weekly basis, the BIST100 decreased by 5.40%, while the Industrial Index lost 4.63% and the Banking Index lost 11.72%. Last week, the sales wave observed in the carry trade transactions as the Yen followed the revival of recession concerns in global markets, and Japan's surprise interest rate increase was also reflected in the BIST. However, the BIST, which could not participate in the subsequent recovery seen in global markets, diverged negatively and completed the week with a sharp decline. We think that the weak course may continue in the short term may continue led by banking stocks, as there are no supportive expectations for the BIST in the short term and it is more affected by the rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East. However, once the recovery trend in global markets strengthens, there may be a tendency to close the price gap that occurred at the beginning of last week. On the global side, major stock markets regained some of their losses in the second half of the week, ending the week with declines ranging between 2-4%. This morning, the U.S. futures are mixed, and German DAX futures and Asian stock markets are on a positive trend. We think that global markets will continue to balance unless incoming data increases recession concerns. The VIOP30 Index completed the Friday evening session down 0.17%. Locally, we expect the Benchmark Index to start the day with reactionary purchases, and continue its fluctuating course throughout the day. SUPPORT: 9,750 - 9,600 RESISTANCE: 10,250 - 10,500.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative on Friday, weakening 0.15% against the USD to close at 33.5293. The currency also depreciated by 0.21% against a basket of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were relatively flat. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 28.32%-28.57%, ending the day at a low of 28.32%, 4 bps below its previous closing.
Headlines:
Industrial production decreased by 2.1% mom and 4.7% yoy in June. The cooling in production data will become more evident in the second half of the year… According to industrial production index data, seasonally and calendar adjusted production fell by 2.1% mom in June. Thus, the annual production contraction was realized as 4.7% (previous 0.1% contraction). Although industrial production recovered from time to time, monthly production was in the contraction zone excluding the May 2024 period. Market and CBRT forecasts were that the output gap would turn negative in the second half of the year, easing pressure on the price mechanism. In this context, economic policies, especially the tight monetary policy, are based on the transition to price stability without sacrificing production and growth. Although inflation indicators have not experienced the targeted pullback, the reflection of the monetary policy stance on production indicators is clearly felt. In addition to this situation at home, downwardly revised growth indicators in global economies, political uncertainty and the fact that 2024 is an election year across the world are also triggering a slowdown in production activity. In an economy that will probably compromise on growth more than forecasts, it seems that it will take a little more time to achieve inflation targets. In particular, inflation inertia and the likelihood of interest rate cuts starting sooner than necessary are insufficient to anchor future price expectations. Hence, the Turkish economy may experience unusually high inflation and sub-potential growth. In the event of data in line with the CBRT's forecast path, 2024 will be a year in which economic growth is more balanced and price stability converges to forecast levels. Currently, the key risk is the concern that an untimely rate cut could push inflation to permanently high levels.
Analyzing the sub-sectors; in June, the mining and quarrying index increased by 8.6% YoY, the manufacturing industry index decreased by 6.9% YoY and the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning production and distribution index increased by 15.2% yoy. At monthly change levels, the index for the mining and quarrying sector increased by 1.8%, the index for manufacturing industry sector decreased by 3.1% and that of the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning production and distribution sector increased by 7.8% compared to the previous month. Due to the summer period, seasonal effects came into play and energy/electricity production especially decoupled positively both on a monthly and annual basis. However, the course of the manufacturing industry, which we consider the main production indicator, is the real reflection of industrial production. Production in durable consumer goods, which signals growth indicators and the course of the economy, contracted sharply. One of the main objectives of the economic administration was to reduce price pressure by cooling demand. In the current situation, however, the retreat in demand is relatively smaller than the slowdown in production (supply). This supports our thesis of low growth and relatively high inflation. Indicators in the manufacturing industry seem to be the most realistic reflection of industrial production.
Company News:
HalkBank (HALKB.TI; MP) is expected to announce its 2Q24 earnings results today after the market close. Among the banks we follow, we expect the highest earnings decline for Halkbank. Our 2Q24 net income estimate is 2,764 million TL, indicating a sharp 43% decline on a quarterly basis and a strong 296% rise YoY, indicates a relatively weak 8.5% ROAE quarterly. The Research Turkey market consensus is TRY2,906mn (Negative).
Pegasus (PGSUS.TI; OP) is to announce its 2Q24 results after the close of the TR markets. (Consensus - Net Sales Revenue: €737mn, EBITDA: €194mn, Net Profit: €71mn, Seker - Net Sales Revenue: €745mn, EBITDA: €213mn, Net Profit: €72mn).
Turkish Airlines (THYAO.TI; OP) has released its traffic figures for July 2024 with PAX decline of 2.6% YoY due to the decrease in both domestic & int'l passengers compared to July 2023. THY's total PAX in July 2024 was at 8.33mn. Meanwhile, in July 2024, the share of international PAX in total PAX was 62.5%. The total load factor was down, at 85.2% in July 2024. The carrier's international PAX declined by 1.7% YoY to 5.2mn in July 2024; domestic PAX declined by 4.2% YoY to 3.12mn in July 2024. Also, THY's cargo operations volume was positive, up 20.7% YoY in July 2024. The Company's announced July 2024 traffic data indicates both domestic & int'l passengers to fall down, but the solid cargo operations' volume effect in July 2024 supports its operations (Slightly Negative).
 



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  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.