Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Wednesday, April 12, 2023
Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Tuesday with buyers, fluctuating in a narrow band during the day to close at 5,124.25, up 0.63%. The Industrial Index gained 0.58% and the Banking Index was up 2.31%. Election uncertainty and the expectation that orthodox policies may be adopted post election, plus the rise in deposit rates, including Currency Protected Deposits spell selling pressure for the BIST. In light of these, we expect purchases ahead of the election to present a selling opportunity, sustaining overall volatility. Today, markets will follow US CPI inflation data which may impact risk appetite and increase volatility. We think that data pointing to a decline in inflation for the 8th consecutive month may impact Fed-related expectations. This morning US and German DAX futures are observing a horizontal trend while there is predominantly a buyers' trend among Asian indices. Domestically, the VIOP-30 Index closed the evening session with a limited rise of 0.06%. We expect the Benchmark Index to start Wednesday positively and fluctuate during the day. SUPPORT: 5,050- 5,000 RESISTANCE: 5,145 - 5,207.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.12% compared to the USD to close to 19.2871. In addition, the currency depreciated by 0.43% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were negative. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 12.17%-12.42%, ending the day at a high of 12.42%, 2.10 pp above its previous closing.
Company News:
The establishment procedures of Akbank Ventures BV, located in the Netherlands with capital of USD30mn, and 100%-owned by Akbank (AKBNK.TI; OP) have been completed and registered with the Dutch Chamber of Commerce.
For Garanti BBVA (GARAN.TI; OP) our 1Q23 net income estimate is TRY13,603mn (-32% QoQ, +66% YoY) with a quarterly ROAE of 39%. We model c.10% TRY loan growth, below the average of private banks, due to the contraction in commercial loans, low single-digit growth in FC loans with the support of export loans, strong 30% growth with market share gains in TRY deposits, and high single-digit decline in FC deposits. We anticipate a stable course in fee income and a positive impact from real estate revaluation gains in other banking income for the quarter as well.
Swap funding costs should ease by 52% QoQ on lower utilization. Due to lower swap funding costs, we anticipate a TRY2.6bn trading gain in 1Q23, vs. TRY1.7bn in 4Q22. CPI linker income is set to decline by as much as 61% QoQ as the bank uses 35% in valuing its CPI linker portfolio, vs. 85.5% in 4Q22. The TRY core spread is expected to weaken by 300bps QoQ on a visible decline in loan yields. Core NIM should tighten by 100bps QoQ.
Total cumulative CoR (currency-adjusted, net) should reach 100bps in 1Q23, in line with the budgeted 100bps. OPEX should surge sharply by 40% QoQ, while solid TRY1.7bn subsidiary income should boost the bottom line. Finally, we expect an effective tax rate of around 10% due to the tax benefit on real estate revaluation gains. Neutral.
1Q23 financials are expected to be announced on April, 27 before the market opening.
Birikim and Gelecek Asset Management have respectively won the retail portfolio tender for TRY 149.3mn and TRY 298.8mn in Yapi Kredi Bank's (YKBNK.TI; OP) NPL sale. The total sales amount of TRY448mn accounts for 2.2% of the bank's NPL book as of 4Q22, and should reduce the NPL ratio by 18bps. Neutral.



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  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.